4 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 HNL prediction & result

Gradski stadion Varazdin
Full time0 – 0

Final score: NK Varazdin 0-0 Istra 1961.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% NK Varazdin, 27% draw, 25% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NK Varazdin at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Varazdin5%Draw92%Istra 19613%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
Dukan Ahmeti
Stipe Jurić
49'
🔁S. Juricout: M. Vuk
57'
61'
🔁E. Frederiksenout: Isaac
61'
🔁V. Rozicout: N. Skafar Zuzic
🔁I. Tavaresout: E. Uchegbu
73'
73'
🔁D. Ahmetiout: S. Gorican
76'
Rene Hrvatin
Frane Maglica
79'
Gregor Sikošek
79'
🔁G. Sikosekout: E. Durakovic
82'
🔁M. Marinaout: T. Duvnjak
82'
85'
🔁R. Hrvatinout: A. Kadusic
85'
🔁D. Doumbiaout: A. Mauric
90+1'
Hamza Jaganjac

Match stats — NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961

58%Possession42%
21Shots9
4On target2
8Corners4
1.45xG0.3

Goals against chances

NK Varazdin0 from 1.45 xGless than the chances were worth
Istra 19610 from 0.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Varazdin 4-2-3-1
  • 33J. SilicG
  • 23F. MaglicaD
  • 13M. MladenovskiD
  • 16N. TepsicD
  • 20G. SikosekD
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 24M. MarinaM
  • 10A. LatkovicM
  • 22L. MamicM
  • 38I. TavaresM
  • 9S. JuricF
Substitutes
  • 1R. McCrorieG
  • 12P. BockajD
  • 4L. SkaricicD
  • 5S. LesjakD
  • 44M. BaracD
  • 3E. DurakovicD
  • 30L. PosinkovicD
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 15S. IlinkovicM
Coach: Nikola Safaric
Istra 1961 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. KolicG
  • 44R. HrvatinD
  • 4R. KumarD
  • 16S. MiettinenD
  • 13N. SepicD
  • 88D. DoumbiaM
  • 25G. AlbarracinM
  • 22E. FrederiksenM
  • 20D. AhmetiM
  • 7V. RozicM
  • 94H. JaganjacF
Substitutes
  • 40J. Paus-KunstG
  • 97A. KadusicD
  • 3M. NasraouiD
  • 66M. MomohD
  • 8A. MauricM
  • 34M. KablarM
  • 9IsaacF
  • 27D. CelijaF
  • 30N. Skafar ZuzicF
Coach: Javi Cabello

Form going into NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961

NK Varazdin

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Dinamo Zagreb22 August 2026
  • W2-0HNK Rijeka16 August 2026
  • W4-1away to NK Slaven Belupo9 August 2026
  • W2-1HNK Hajduk Split2 August 2026

Istra 1961

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Dinamo Zagreb29 August 2026
  • L2-3away to HNK Rijeka23 August 2026
  • W3-0NK Slaven Belupo15 August 2026
  • D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split9 August 2026
  • L2-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 August 2026

What these results say

  • NK Varazdin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • NK Varazdin won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Istra 1961 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Istra 1961 had three goals or more.
  • Istra 1961 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3NK Varazdin115331510+518
6Istra 1961113441918+113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961

  • 23 May 2026NK Varazdin 2–0 Istra 1961HNL
  • 20 March 2026Istra 1961 2–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 19 December 2025NK Varazdin 1–3 Istra 1961HNL
  • 3 October 2025Istra 1961 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 11 May 2025Istra 1961 0–0 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 8 March 2025NK Varazdin 0–0 Istra 1961HNL

Leading scorers: NK Varazdin and Istra 1961

NK Varazdin

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mamić40
  • I. Canjuga32

Istra 1961

GoalsAssists

  • E. Frederiksen84
  • H. Jaganjac51
  • D. Ahmeti34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NK Varazdin and Istra 1961 drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Varazdin at 48% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.45–0.30.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.