Septemvri Sofia
vs
Botev Vratsa
First League prediction
The model makes it 55% Septemvri Sofia, 21% draw, 24% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 2.27, Botev Vratsa 1.47.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Septemvri Sofia
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna17 August 2026
- L0-3CSKA Sofia9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Levski Sofia1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 July 2026
- D1-1Arda Kardzhali18 July 2026
Botev Vratsa
- L0-5away to CSKA Sofia16 August 2026
- L0-3Slavia Sofia10 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ludogorets2 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194825 July 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Septemvri Sofia | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Botev Vratsa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
- 10 May 2026Botev Vratsa 1–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 6 April 2026Septemvri Sofia 0–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 25 October 2025Botev Vratsa 2–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 2 May 2025Botev Vratsa 3–2 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 8 February 2025Septemvri Sofia 2–2 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 19 August 2024Botev Vratsa 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Septemvri Sofia carry a model rating of 5.97 against 5.91 for Botev Vratsa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Septemvri Sofia D-L-L-L-W; Botev Vratsa D-L-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.47 for Botev Vratsa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Septemvri Sofia rate 0.40 in attack and 2.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botev Vratsa rate 0.45 and 3.00.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Septemvri Sofia the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Septemvri Sofia against 1.47 for Botev Vratsa. Septemvri Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/3 for Botev Vratsa.