Brann
vs
Lillestrom
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 53% Brann, 24% draw, 23% Lillestrom — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Brann 1.78, Lillestrom 1.09.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Brann
- W3-0Ham-Kam16 August 2026
- W3-2Rosenborg2 August 2026
- L2-3Valerenga26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Molde18 July 2026
- W2-1Start12 July 2026
Lillestrom
- D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026
- L0-2Rosenborg9 August 2026
- L0-4away to Bodo/Glimt31 July 2026
- L1-2Viking22 July 2026
- W2-1KFUM Oslo18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Brann | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 25 |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Brann vs Lillestrom
- 9 November 2024Brann 2–1 LillestromEliteserien
- 12 May 2024Lillestrom 0–2 BrannEliteserien
- 1 October 2023Lillestrom 0–2 BrannEliteserien
- 11 June 2023Brann 2–2 LillestromEliteserien
- 20 May 2023Brann 2–0 LillestromNM Cupen
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Brann carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.55 for Lillestrom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Brann W-W-L-W-W; Lillestrom W-L-L-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Brann and 1.09 for Lillestrom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brann rate 0.74 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lillestrom rate 0.69 and 1.27.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lillestrom, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brann the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Brann against 1.09 for Lillestrom. Brann's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.27 for Lillestrom.