Platense vs Deportivo Riestra Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Platense 1-1 Deportivo Riestra.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Platense, 29% draw, 30% Deportivo Riestra — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Platense at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Platense vs Deportivo Riestra
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. CozzaniG
- 25J. SaboridoD
- 13I. VazquezD
- 34M. MendiaD
- 3T. SilvaD
- 5I. GomezM
- 24M. BarriosM
- 43K. RetamarM
- 18B. MerliniM
- 10F. ZapiolaM
- 99G. LencinaF
- 22N. SumavilG
- 4A. LagosD
- 31Victor CuestaD
- 38C. IngenthronD
- 16G. TogniF
- 15M. AmarfilM
- 17F. BussioM
- 7G. MaineroF
- 33J. GautoF
- 1I. ArceG
- 36M. BracamonteD
- 24F. MinoD
- 22C. PazD
- 6I. GariglioD
- 15N. SansotreD
- 10B. SanchezM
- 8M. CelizM
- 27J. GoitiaM
- 21T. GonzalezM
- 9N. BenegasF
- 23M. ArzamendiaG
- 4Murillo YaisonD
- 5P. RamirezD
- 13R. GalloD
- 16N. WatsonM
- 14P. MonjeM
- 29A. GranerosF
- 35A. StringaF
- 17A. AlmadaM
Form going into Platense vs Deportivo Riestra
Platense
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Defensa Y Justicia31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Barracas Central23 August 2026
- D1-1Boca Juniors16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Independiente9 August 2026
- L0-4Talleres Cordoba3 August 2026
Deportivo Riestra
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Huracan23 August 2026
- L0-2away to Newell's Old Boys15 August 2026
- W2-0Estudiantes La Plata8 August 2026
- L0-1Barracas Central2 August 2026
What these results say
- Platense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Deportivo Riestra had two goals or fewer.
- Deportivo Riestra failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 14 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Platense and Deportivo Riestra drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Platense at 41% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: G. Lencina 16' for Platense, A. Diaz 71' for Deportivo Riestra. On expected goals it finished 0.63–0.32.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.