Aalesund
vs
Start
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 47% Aalesund, 22% draw, 31% Start — fair odds of 2.13, 4.55 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Aalesund 2.15, Start 1.74.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Aalesund
- D5-5Valerenga16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ham-Kam9 August 2026
- L2-6Tromso2 August 2026
- D1-1Viking26 July 2026
- L1-6away to Valerenga16 July 2026
Start
- L0-1Fredrikstad8 August 2026
- L0-3Viking1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Kristiansund BK25 July 2026
- L0-3Rosenborg18 July 2026
- L1-2away to Brann12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Aalesund | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 15 |
| 16 | Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Start
- 21 March 2026Start 1–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 23 August 2025Start 3–1 Aalesund1. Division
- 24 May 2025Aalesund 1–1 Start1. Division
- 21 October 2024Aalesund 3–1 Start1. Division
- 6 April 2024Start 1–3 Aalesund1. Division
- 1 November 2021Aalesund 3–2 Start1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aalesund carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.48 for Start. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Aalesund L-D-L-D-D; Start L-L-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.15 goals for Aalesund and 1.74 for Start. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aalesund rate 0.76 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Start rate 0.71 and 1.50.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aalesund the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Aalesund against 1.74 for Start. Aalesund's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.5 for Start.