Regular Season - 20 · 5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam Eliteserien prediction

Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim

The model makes it 71% Rosenborg, 17% draw, 12% Ham-Kam — fair odds of 1.41, 5.88 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).

Expected goals: Rosenborg 2.48, Ham-Kam 0.91.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

55%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 10%2-1 9%3-0 9%

Form going into this match

Rosenborg

  • W2-1Viking14 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Lillestrom9 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Brann2 August 2026
  • W4-0Fredrikstad27 July 2026
  • W3-0away to Start18 July 2026

Ham-Kam

  • L0-3away to Brann16 August 2026
  • D1-1Aalesund9 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Valerenga31 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF26 July 2026
  • L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Rosenborg177372522+324
10Ham-Kam176472430-622

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Head-to-head: Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam

  • 28 September 2025Ham-Kam 4–0 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 13 July 2025Rosenborg 2–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • 10 November 2024Ham-Kam 0–2 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 14 April 2024Rosenborg 1–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • 20 August 2023Ham-Kam 3–0 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 4 June 2023Rosenborg 4–0 Ham-KamEliteserien

Leading scorers

Rosenborg

  • Amin Chiakha9 goals2 assists

Ham-Kam

No league goals recorded yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Rosenborg carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.35 for Ham-Kam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): Rosenborg W-W-L-W-W; Ham-Kam L-L-W-D-L.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.48 goals for Rosenborg and 0.91 for Ham-Kam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Rosenborg rate 0.93 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ham-Kam rate 0.50 and 1.41.

That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rosenborg the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Rosenborg against 0.91 for Ham-Kam. Rosenborg's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.41 for Ham-Kam.