Rosenborg
vs
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 71% Rosenborg, 17% draw, 12% Ham-Kam — fair odds of 1.41, 5.88 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Rosenborg 2.48, Ham-Kam 0.91.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rosenborg
- W2-1Viking14 August 2026
- W2-0away to Lillestrom9 August 2026
- L2-3away to Brann2 August 2026
- W4-0Fredrikstad27 July 2026
- W3-0away to Start18 July 2026
Ham-Kam
- L0-3away to Brann16 August 2026
- D1-1Aalesund9 August 2026
- W3-0away to Valerenga31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF26 July 2026
- L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rosenborg | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 | Ham-Kam | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam
- 28 September 2025Ham-Kam 4–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 13 July 2025Rosenborg 2–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 10 November 2024Ham-Kam 0–2 RosenborgEliteserien
- 14 April 2024Rosenborg 1–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 20 August 2023Ham-Kam 3–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 4 June 2023Rosenborg 4–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
Leading scorers
Rosenborg
- Amin Chiakha9 goals2 assists
Ham-Kam
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rosenborg carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.35 for Ham-Kam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Rosenborg W-W-L-W-W; Ham-Kam L-L-W-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.48 goals for Rosenborg and 0.91 for Ham-Kam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rosenborg rate 0.93 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ham-Kam rate 0.50 and 1.41.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosenborg the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Rosenborg against 0.91 for Ham-Kam. Rosenborg's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.41 for Ham-Kam.