Sandefjord vs Viking Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Sandefjord 1-1 Viking.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Sandefjord, 30% draw, 35% Viking — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sandefjord at 35% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sandefjord vs Viking
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30E. HadayaG
- 4F. PedersenD
- 16H. KrogelienD
- 44X. LambrixD
- 3V. EgeliD
- 14E. PettersenM
- 8T. BorkeeietM
- 6S. MorkM
- 7E. PatoulidisF
- 9O. KapskarmoF
- 27J. DunsbyF
- 1A. GronnebergG
- 2M. HellanD
- 13R. HoltenD
- 5G. HojbjergD
- 10E. GigovicM
- 37J. VesterM
- 24S. MathisenF
- 17F. ApetorgborF
- 19B. BerntsenF
- 1A. OstboG
- 5H. HeggheimD
- 6G. StensnessD
- 27J. DalandD
- 24V. AuklendD
- 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
- 29T. MoiM
- 8J. BellM
- 10Z. TripicM
- 20P. ChristiansenF
- 7K. AskildsenF
- 30L. BelkoG
- 3V. VevatneD
- 2H. J. HaugenD
- 17E. BasseyD
- 16H. BjordalM
- 15O. VistedM
- 22E. BotheimF
- 23N. FuglestadF
- 11R. PostemaF
Form going into Sandefjord vs Viking
Sandefjord
- D0-0Brann30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF16 August 2026
Viking
- W2-1Aalesund30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Rosenborg14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sandefjord | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
| 1 | Viking | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 20 | +34 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sandefjord vs Viking
- 4 September 2026Sandefjord 1–1 VikingEliteserien
- 18 July 2026Viking 2–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 10 August 2025Sandefjord 1–2 VikingEliteserien
- 16 May 2025Viking 3–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 2 November 2024Viking 3–2 SandefjordEliteserien
- 20 May 2024Sandefjord 0–3 VikingEliteserien
Leading scorers: Sandefjord and Viking
Sandefjord
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Viking
- P. Christiansen11 goals6 assists
- S. Kvia-Egeskog8 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.