Regular Season - 20 · 4 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Sandefjord vs Viking Eliteserien prediction

Jotun Arena, Sandefjord

The model makes it 22% Sandefjord, 21% draw, 57% Viking — fair odds of 4.55, 4.76 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).

Expected goals: Sandefjord 1.33, Viking 2.21.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

66%
Both teams to score
69%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-2 9%1-1 9%0-2 7%

Form going into this match

Sandefjord

  • W2-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF16 August 2026
  • L0-1KFUM Oslo7 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Fredrikstad1 August 2026
  • L0-3Bodo/Glimt26 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Viking18 July 2026

Viking

  • L1-2away to Rosenborg14 August 2026
  • W2-1Sarpsborg 08 FF8 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Start1 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Aalesund26 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Lillestrom22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Sandefjord175391523-818
2Viking1713134017+2340

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Head-to-head: Sandefjord vs Viking

  • 18 July 2026Viking 2–1 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 10 August 2025Sandefjord 1–2 VikingEliteserien
  • 16 May 2025Viking 3–1 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 2 November 2024Viking 3–2 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 20 May 2024Sandefjord 0–3 VikingEliteserien
  • 24 September 2023Viking 4–3 SandefjordEliteserien

Leading scorers

Sandefjord

No league goals recorded yet.

Viking

  • P. Christiansen9 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Sandefjord carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.61 for Viking. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): Sandefjord L-L-L-L-W; Viking W-D-W-W-L.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Sandefjord and 2.21 for Viking. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Sandefjord rate 0.57 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Viking rate 0.76 and 1.23.

That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (7%).

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sandefjord a 0% chance of the title and Viking 23.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Viking the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sandefjord against 2.21 for Viking. Sandefjord's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.23 for Viking.