Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3. Liga prediction

Merkur Spiel-Arena

Our model says: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

The model makes it 56% Fortuna Düsseldorf, 26% draw, 18% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0.77.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Fortuna Düsseldorf: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Fortuna Düsseldorf's rating is built from 13 3. Liga matches and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Fortuna Düsseldorf are 13th on 16 points from 13 games; SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are 18th on 12 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • Fortuna Düsseldorf are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to FC Ingolstadt 04.
  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Hansa Rostock.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

45%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Fortuna Düsseldorf win Draw SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 2–012%
  3. 1–111%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 3–07%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Fortuna Düsseldorf first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Fortuna Düsseldorf

3. Liga

  • L2-3away to FC Ingolstadt 047 November 2026
  • D0-0SV Meppen30 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Hansa Rostock24 October 2026
  • L1-3FC Saarbrücken17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Preußen Münster14 October 2026

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

3. Liga

  • L0-3away to Hansa Rostock7 November 2026
  • L0-1Rot-Weiß Essen1 November 2026
  • L1-7away to SV Wehen24 October 2026
  • W3-2Preußen Münster17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Viktoria Köln14 October 2026

What these results say

  • Fortuna Düsseldorf failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Fortuna Düsseldorf scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Fortuna Düsseldorf conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Fortuna Düsseldorf134451417-316
18SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach133371329-1612

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Fortuna Düsseldorf

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 11% today

Win 9%
Draw 13%
Defeat 16%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 89% today

Win 83%
Draw 88%
Defeat 91%

From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 0.1% chance of the title and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Fortuna Düsseldorf v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 53% / 28% / 19% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 56% / 26% / 18%: the biggest move is Fortuna Düsseldorf's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Fortuna Düsseldorf win56%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win18%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Fortuna Düsseldorf SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
0.43 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.39
1.63 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.48
1.73 Model expected goals (this match) 0.77

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 0.77 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/2.48 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.

Fortuna Düsseldorf carry a model rating of 6.2 against 5.93 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.

How the model reaches 56% for Fortuna Düsseldorf to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fortuna Düsseldorf to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Fortuna Düsseldorf's ratings add 6 points and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 56%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Fortuna Düsseldorf's ratings48%+6
  5. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's ratings56%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Fortuna DüsseldorfSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
13Matches13
4W 4D 5LRecord3W 3D 7L
14 1.1 per gameGoals scored13 1.0 per game
17 1.3 per gameGoals conceded29 2.2 per game
3 of 13Clean sheets2 of 13
4 of 13Failed to score4 of 13
–Penalties scored0 of 1
34 2.6 per gameYellow cards32 2.5 per game
3Red cards1
4-3-3 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 4×

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away

6Played6
2W 2D 2LRecord0W 2D 4L
6–8Goals for – against6–18
2 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: Fortuna Düsseldorf 13, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 13.

Fortuna Düsseldorf scored 221423
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach conceded 743246

Fortuna Düsseldorf score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have let in 2 there.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scored 114233
Fortuna Düsseldorf conceded 323612

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Fortuna Düsseldorf have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Fortuna Düsseldorf

  • at Würzburger Kickers28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 33%
  • vs SV Wehen5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 34%
  • at FC Viktoria Köln12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 19%
  • vs Rot-Weiß Essen19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 34%
  • at Havelse16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 36%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

  • vs MSV Duisburg28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 20%
  • at Stuttgart II5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 17%
  • vs Alemannia Aachen12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 24%
  • at Würzburger Kickers19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 22%
  • vs SSV Jahn Regensburg16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 27%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.