Accrington Stanley
vs
Northampton
League Two prediction
Our model says: Accrington Stanley 1–0 Northampton
The model makes it 39% Accrington Stanley, 28% draw, 33% Northampton — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Accrington Stanley 1.40, Northampton 1.22.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Accrington Stanley are 10th on 14 points from 11 games; Northampton are 22nd on 10 points from 9 games — League Two.
- Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Gillingham.
- Northampton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Grimsby.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 February 2021, ended Accrington Stanley 0–0 Northampton.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Accrington Stanley vs Northampton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Accrington Stanley at 39% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Accrington Stanley vs Northampton
Accrington Stanley
- W3-1Gillingham17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Oldham10 October 2026
- W2-0Cheltenham3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Swindon Town26 September 2026
- D0-0Newport County19 September 2026
Northampton
- W2-0away to Grimsby17 October 2026
- D1-1away to York10 October 2026
- L0-1Rotherham19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shrewsbury12 September 2026
- W1-0Newport County5 September 2026
What these results say
- Accrington Stanley went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Accrington Stanley had two goals or fewer.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Accrington Stanley | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 14 |
| 22 | Northampton | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Accrington Stanley
Chance to finish in the bottom three
Northampton
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Accrington Stanley vs Northampton
- 6 February 2021Accrington Stanley 0–0 NorthamptonLeague One
- 14 November 2020Northampton 0–1 Accrington StanleyLeague One
- 28 December 2015Northampton 1–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 29 August 2015Accrington Stanley 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 31 January 2015Accrington Stanley 1–5 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 20 September 2014Northampton 4–5 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Accrington Stanley and Northampton
Accrington Stanley
GoalsAssists
- C. Caton50
Northampton
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Accrington Stanley carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.11 for Northampton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Accrington Stanley and 1.22 for Northampton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Accrington Stanley rate 0.47 in attack and 2.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Northampton rate 0.47 and 2.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Accrington Stanley a 0.3% chance of the title and Northampton 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Accrington Stanley the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Accrington Stanley against 1.22 for Northampton. Accrington Stanley's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.05 for Northampton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Accrington Stanley at home · Northampton away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Accrington Stanley 11, Northampton 9.
Accrington Stanley score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Northampton have let in 2 there.
Northampton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Accrington Stanley have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Accrington Stanley
- at Port Vale14 Nov · League Twowin 27%
- vs Salford City21 Nov · League Twowin 32%
- at Fleetwood Town28 Nov · League Twowin 29%
Northampton
- at Salford City14 Nov · League Twowin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.