Vancouver Whitecaps
vs
Austin
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Vancouver Whitecaps 1-2 Austin.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Vancouver Whitecaps, 29% draw, 30% Austin — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vancouver Whitecaps 1.53, Austin 1.14.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin
Vancouver Whitecaps
- W3-0Los Angeles Galaxy10 September 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Sporting Kansas City30 August 2026
- W5-0FC Dallas23 August 2026
Austin
- D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Portland Timbers30 August 2026
- D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | +30 | 46 |
| 13 | Austin | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin
- 18 May 2025Austin 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 5–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024Austin 0–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 5 May 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 0–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 16 April 2023Austin 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Vancouver Whitecaps and Austin
Vancouver Whitecaps
- B. White15 goals2 assists
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vancouver Whitecaps carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.55 for Austin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.14 for Austin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.70 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austin rate 0.74 and 1.34.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 66% chance of the title and Austin 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Vancouver Whitecaps against 1.14 for Austin. Vancouver Whitecaps's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.34 for Austin.