Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Vancouver Whitecaps 1-2 Austin.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Vancouver Whitecaps, 29% draw, 26% Austin — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 70R. ModestoD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 8O. LarrazM
- 20A. CubasM
- 7C. SabalyM
- 25R. GauldM
- 14B. CaicedoM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 18E. OcampoD
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 3S. AdekugbeD
- 23A. CvetkovicM
- 59J. BadwalM
- 11E. SabbiF
- 77Y. DiabyF
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 1B. StuverG
- 3M. DeslerD
- 15J. BellD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
- 38E. TorresM
- 14B. SabovicM
- 17J. GallagherM
- 11F. TorresF
- 21C. RamirezF
- 24J. AlastueyF
- 12D. LasG
- 5O. SvatokD
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 23Z. KolmanicD
- 35M. DjordjevicD
- 6I. SanchezM
- 32M. BurtonM
- 77P. PlachetaM
- 9B. VazquezF
Form going into Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin
Vancouver Whitecaps
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Los Angeles Galaxy10 September 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Sporting Kansas City30 August 2026
- W5-0FC Dallas23 August 2026
- L0-1Houston Dynamo20 August 2026
Austin
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Portland Timbers30 August 2026
- D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Seattle Sounders20 August 2026
What these results say
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps had three goals or more.
- Austin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Austin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 33 | +34 | 58 |
| 14 | Austin | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin
- 18 May 2025Austin 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 5–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024Austin 0–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 5 May 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 0–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 16 April 2023Austin 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Vancouver Whitecaps and Austin
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White182
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Austin won 2–1 at Vancouver Whitecaps. The model had leaned towards a win for Vancouver Whitecaps at 45% and given a win for Austin 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: C. Ramirez 28' for Austin, B. White 49' for Vancouver Whitecaps, C. Ramirez 60' for Austin. Sent off: Guilherme Biro (Austin) 90'. On expected goals it finished 3.33–1.05.
How the call on Vancouver Whitecaps v Austin has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Vancouver Whitecaps's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Vancouver Whitecaps win45%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Austin win26%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.