23 July 2026, 15:30 UTC

Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Aukštaitija Stadium, Panevezys
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Panevėžys 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Panevėžys, 24% draw, 50% FK Tobol Kostanay — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Tobol Kostanay at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Valdas Paulauskas
22'
35'
Luis Guerra
41'
🔁S. Busurmanovout: D. Ustimenko
Seydina Keita
45+2'
⚽S. Keita
45'
46'
🔁D. Zhumatout: A. Talal
Kwadwo Asamoah
58'
60'
⚽Askhat Tagybergen (pen)
Parfait Bizoza
63'
🔁V. Paulauskasout: S. Kouadio
71'
🔁N. Petkeviciusout: M. Bacanin
71'
🔁K. Asamoahout: O. Kurtsev
71'
71'
🔁L. Guerraout: A. Zuev
🔁D. Balsysout: J. Bopesu
77'
84'
⚽N. Cavnicassist: A. Tagybergen
86'
Uroš Milovanović
87'
🔁N. Cavnicout: P. Ndiaye
🔁I. Asanteout: J. Janusevskis
88'

Line-ups

Panevėžys 4-3-3
  • 1Vytautas ČerniauskasG
  • 28Ernestas BurdzilauskasF
  • 33Seydina KeitaD
  • 13Strahinja KerkezD
  • 66Dovydas BalsysD
  • 77Parfait BizozaM
  • 6Matas RamanauskasM
  • 34Isaac AsanteM
  • 79Valdas PaulauskasM
  • 27Kwadwo AsamoahM
  • 24Nauris PetkevičiusF
Substitutes
  • 8Salomon KouadioM
  • 17Oleksandr KurtsevM
  • 16Marko BačaninF
  • 95Joël BopesuD
  • 15Justinas JanusevskisD
  • 12Liudvikas ValiusG
  • 22Arijus BrazinskasG
  • 5Miano van den BosD
  • 25Ignas LukoseviciusD
Coach: Toni Korkeakunnas
FK Tobol Kostanay 4-2-3-1
  • 1Sultan BusurmanovG
  • 21Nauryzbek ZhagorovM
  • 4Nemanja CavnićD
  • 72Rayan SenhadjiD
  • 25Antonio BoršićD
  • 8Askhat TagybergenM
  • 6Maksim MyakishM
  • 10Islam ChesnokovM
  • 19Dauren ZhumatF
  • 30Luis GuerraM
  • 18Uroš MilovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 44Danil UstimenkoG
  • 14Amine TalalM
  • 17Aleksander ZuevM
  • 5Pape Alioune NdiayeD
  • 35Yuriy MelikhovG
  • 3Roman AsrankulovD
  • 22Aleksandr MarochkinD
  • 56Emin MussayevM
  • 57Azamat ZinadinM
Coach: Miroslav Romashchenko

Head-to-head: Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay

  • 23 July 2026Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol KostanayUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.