23 July 2026, 15:30 UTC

Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Aukštaitija Stadium, Panevezys
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Panevėžys 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Panevėžys, 24% draw, 50% FK Tobol Kostanay — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: FK Tobol Kostanay v Panevėžys, 30 Jul →

FK Tobol Kostanay went through on penalties, after 2–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Tobol Kostanay at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Valdas Paulauskas
22'
35'
Luis Guerra
41'
🔁S. Busurmanovout: D. Ustimenko
Seydina Keita
45+2'
⚽S. Keita
45'
46'
🔁D. Zhumatout: A. Talal
Kwadwo Asamoah
58'
60'
⚽Askhat Tagybergen (pen)
Parfait Bizoza
63'
🔁V. Paulauskasout: S. Kouadio
71'
🔁N. Petkeviciusout: M. Bacanin
71'
🔁K. Asamoahout: O. Kurtsev
71'
71'
🔁L. Guerraout: A. Zuev
🔁D. Balsysout: J. Bopesu
77'
84'
⚽N. Cavnicassist: A. Tagybergen
86'
Uroš Milovanović
87'
🔁N. Cavnicout: P. Ndiaye
🔁I. Asanteout: J. Janusevskis
88'

Line-ups

Panevėžys 4-3-3
  • 1Vytautas ČerniauskasG
  • 28Ernestas BurdzilauskasF
  • 33Seydina KeitaD
  • 13Strahinja KerkezD
  • 66Dovydas BalsysD
  • 77Parfait BizozaM
  • 6Matas RamanauskasM
  • 34Isaac AsanteM
  • 79Valdas PaulauskasM
  • 27Kwadwo AsamoahM
  • 24Nauris PetkevičiusF
Substitutes
  • 8Salomon KouadioM
  • 17Oleksandr KurtsevM
  • 16Marko BačaninF
  • 95Joël BopesuD
  • 15Justinas JanusevskisD
  • 12Liudvikas ValiusG
  • 22Arijus BrazinskasG
  • 5Miano van den BosD
  • 25Ignas LukoseviciusD
Coach: Toni Korkeakunnas
FK Tobol Kostanay 4-2-3-1
  • 1Sultan BusurmanovG
  • 21Nauryzbek ZhagorovM
  • 4Nemanja CavnićD
  • 72Rayan SenhadjiD
  • 25Antonio BoršićD
  • 8Askhat TagybergenM
  • 6Maksim MyakishM
  • 10Islam ChesnokovM
  • 19Dauren ZhumatF
  • 30Luis GuerraM
  • 18Uroš MilovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 44Danil UstimenkoG
  • 14Amine TalalM
  • 17Aleksander ZuevM
  • 5Pape Alioune NdiayeD
  • 35Yuriy MelikhovG
  • 3Roman AsrankulovD
  • 22Aleksandr MarochkinD
  • 56Emin MussayevM
  • 57Azamat ZinadinM
Coach: Miroslav Romashchenko

The result against the call

Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FK Tobol Kostanay at 50% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Keita 45' for Panevėžys, N. Cavnic 84' for FK Tobol Kostanay.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.