Borussia Dortmund
vs
Real Betis
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Real Betis
The model makes it 57% Borussia Dortmund, 23% draw, 20% Real Betis — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.17, Real Betis 1.09.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,420 settled matches.
Edge to Borussia Dortmund: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Borussia Dortmund's rating is built from 40 Bundesliga matches and Real Betis's from 47 La Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 695 matches.
Key facts
- Borussia Dortmund are 11th on 6 points from 3 games; Real Betis are 10th on 6 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of their last 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Sabah FA.
- Real Betis have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat at home to Barcelona.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 57% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 1,073 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund
- W2-1away to Sabah FA20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt14 October 2026
- W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026
Real Betis
- W3-2FC Porto14 October 2026
- W3-2away to Lille8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Real Betis | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund
GoalsAssists
- S. Guirassy40
Real Betis
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Borussia Dortmund carry a model rating of 7.22 against 7.03 for Real Betis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.09 for Real Betis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Borussia Dortmund rate 1.22 in attack and 0.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Betis rate 1.29 and 0.91.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Real Betis, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund against 1.09 for Real Betis. Borussia Dortmund's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.29/0.91 for Real Betis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Borussia Dortmund at home · Real Betis away
League matches only, this season — Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga, Real Betis in the La Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Borussia Dortmund 6 in the Bundesliga, Real Betis 9 in the La Liga.
Borussia Dortmund score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Real Betis have let in 3 there.
Real Betis score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Borussia Dortmund have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Borussia Dortmund
- vs SV Elversberg7 Nov · Bundesligawin 62%
- at Borussia Mönchengladbach21 Nov · Bundesligawin 63%
- at Arsenal24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 23%
Real Betis
- at Elche8 Nov · La Ligawin 43%
- at Sevilla22 Nov · La Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.