Buriram United
vs
Kashima
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Buriram United 0–1 Kashima
The model makes it 27% Buriram United, 28% draw, 45% Kashima — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Buriram United 1.06, Kashima 1.54.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,028 settled matches.
One-sided: Kashima are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Buriram United's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Kashima's from 58 matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Buriram United are 11th on 1 point from 2 games; Kashima are top on 6 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Kashima have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vissel Kobe.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Buriram United vs Kashima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kashima at 45% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 2,030 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Buriram United vs Kashima
Buriram United
- L0-1Beijing Guoan13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Johor Darul Takzim FC15 September 2026
Kashima
- W1-0away to Công An Nhân Dân13 October 2026
- W7-1Newcastle Jets15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Buriram United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Kashima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Buriram United and Kashima
Buriram United
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Kashima
GoalsAssists
- A. Čavrić30
- H. Tokuda21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Buriram United carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.72 for Kashima. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Buriram United and 1.54 for Kashima. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Buriram United rate 0.58 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kashima rate 0.78 and 1.02.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kashima the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Buriram United against 1.54 for Kashima. Buriram United's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.02 for Kashima.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Buriram United
- at SHANGHAI SIPG24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 23%
- vs Kyoto Sanga1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 41%
- at Kashiwa Reysol10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 17%
- vs Vissel Kobe16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
Kashima
- vs Jeonbuk Motors25 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 53%
- at Port FC2 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 57%
- at Daejeon Citizen9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- vs Ratchaburi16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 74%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.