Universitatea Craiova
vs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë
The model makes it 77% Universitatea Craiova, 16% draw, 7% Egnatia Rrogozhinë — fair odds of 1.30, 6.25 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 2.82, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.60.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
One-sided: Universitatea Craiova are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Universitatea Craiova's rating is built from 52 Romanian Liga I matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most; Egnatia Rrogozhinë's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- Universitatea Craiova are 21st on 1 point from 1 game; Egnatia Rrogozhinë are 20th on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Farul Constanta.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 77% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 349 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Universitatea Craiova
- D1-1Getafe15 October 2026
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- D1-1FC Midtjylland15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
A clear gap in the ratings
Universitatea Craiova carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.23 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.82 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.60 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitatea Craiova rate 0.88 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Egnatia Rrogozhinë rate 0.53 and 1.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Egnatia Rrogozhinë, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.82 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 0.60 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.88/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.85 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Universitatea Craiova
- at CFR 1907 Cluj7 Nov · Liga Iwin 44%
- at Uta Arad21 Nov · Liga Iwin 49%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- vs Lincoln Red Imps FC26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 47%
- vs Kauno Žalgiris10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 39%
- at SC Braga17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 5%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.