Twente
vs
Pafos
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Twente 1–0 Pafos
The model makes it 52% Twente, 28% draw, 20% Pafos — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Twente 1.58, Pafos 0.80.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
Edge to Twente: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Twente's rating is built from 43 Eredivisie matches and Pafos's from 42 Cypriot First Division matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- Twente are 14th on 3 points from 1 game; Pafos are 32nd on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Twente have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Utrecht.
- Pafos have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Apoel Nicosia.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Twente vs Pafos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 52% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 1,080 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Twente vs Pafos
Twente
- W1-0FC Thun15 October 2026
Pafos
- L1-3away to Atalanta15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Twente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 32 | Pafos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Twente and Pafos
Twente
GoalsAssists
- M. Pjaca41
- M. Bruns30
Pafos
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Twente carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.75 for Pafos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Twente and 0.80 for Pafos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Twente rate 0.93 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pafos rate 0.79 and 0.98.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Twente the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Twente against 0.80 for Pafos. Twente's attack/defence rating is 0.93/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/0.98 for Pafos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Twente at home · Pafos away
League matches only, this season — Twente in the Eredivisie, Pafos in the 1. Division. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Twente 9 in the Eredivisie, Pafos 6 in the 1. Division.
Twente score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Pafos have let in 0 there.
Pafos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Twente have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Twente
- vs Ajax8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 37%
- vs Willem II22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 75%
Pafos
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 56%
- at Omonia Aradippou21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.