15 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian Premiership prediction & result

Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Falkirk 2-1 Heart of Midlothian.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Falkirk, 27% draw, 32% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Falkirk at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Falkirk96%Draw4%Heart of Midlothian0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Finley Frank Barbrook
3'
⚽Ben krauhausassist: Ryan Strain
8'
22'
⚽James wilsonassist: Josh Mcpake
28'
Claudio Rafael Soares Braga
35'
Yan Dhanda
45'
🔁James wilsonout: Jerome Williams
Ryan Strain
55'
🔁Ben krauhausout: Calvin Fodrey
57'
Owen Eames
67'
⚽Owen Eames
68'
73'
🔁Josh Mcpakeout: Rogers Mato
73'
🔁Calvin Millerout: Sabah Kerjota
73'
🔁Harry Milneout: Stephen Kingsley
Calvin Fodrey
75'
77'
Jamie McCart
🔁Jacob Murrellout: Ross Maclver
78'
🔁Finley Frank Barbrookout: Craig Sibbald
79'
80'
🔁Stuart Findlayout: Christian Dahle Borchgrevink
🔁Owen Eamesout: Deniss Meļņiks
86'

Match stats — Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian

42%Possession58%
13Shots9
4On target4
3Corners4

Line-ups

Falkirk 4-2-3-1
  • 19S. BainG
  • 22R. StrainD
  • 15L. NeilsonD
  • 5L. HendersonD
  • 3L. McCannD
  • 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
  • 8B. SpencerM
  • 23E. RossM
  • 28B. KrauhausM
  • 42Owen EamesM
  • 24J. MurrellF
Substitutes
  • 17S. TanserD
  • 47A. DohertyF
  • 99C. FodreyM
  • 1N. HogarthG
  • 9R. MacIverF
  • 4J. McMillanD
  • 21D. MeļņiksM
  • 7Ben ParkinsonF
  • 10C. SibbaldM
Coach: J. McGlynn
Heart of Midlothian 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. ReusG
  • 23J. AltenaD
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 17S. FindlayD
  • 18H. MilneD
  • 31Y. DhandaM
  • 78L. MendyM
  • 7C. MillerM
  • 10Cláudio BragaM
  • 15J. McPakeM
  • 21J. WilsonF
Substitutes
  • 19S. GuendouzF
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 74R. MatoF
  • 3S. KingsleyD
  • 29S. KerjotaF
  • 11P. KaboreF
  • 2C. BorchgrevinkD
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
  • 9J. WilliamsF
Coach: W. Vrancken

Form going into Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian

Falkirk

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
  • L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Celtic29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Motherwell9 August 2026
  • L0-2St Mirren1 August 2026

Heart of Midlothian

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
  • W2-1St Johnstone29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Rapid Vienna26 August 2026
  • D2-2Rapid Vienna20 August 2026

What these results say

  • Falkirk did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Falkirk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Heart of Midlothian went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Heart of Midlothian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Falkirk114341312+115
3Heart of Midlothian116232417+720

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian

  • 13 May 2026Heart of Midlothian 3–0 FalkirkPremiership
  • 21 February 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 FalkirkPremiership
  • 17 January 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–1 FalkirkFA Cup
  • 13 December 2025Falkirk 0–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 27 September 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–0 FalkirkPremiership

Leading scorers: Falkirk and Heart of Midlothian

Falkirk

GoalsAssists

  • J. Murrell50

Heart of Midlothian

GoalsAssists

  • Cláudio Braga52
  • C. Miller51
  • J. McPake35

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Falkirk beat Heart of Midlothian 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Falkirk at 41%. The goals: Ben krauhaus 8' for Falkirk, James wilson 22' for Heart of Midlothian, Owen Eames 68' for Falkirk.

How the call on Falkirk v Heart of Midlothian has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is Falkirk's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Falkirk win41%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −3
  3. Heart of Midlothian win32%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.