Ironi Tiberias
vs
Hapoel Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Ironi Tiberias 1–0 Hapoel Jerusalem
The model makes it 46% Ironi Tiberias, 30% draw, 24% Hapoel Jerusalem — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Ironi Tiberias 1.53, Hapoel Jerusalem 0.80.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Ironi Tiberias wins, grey are draws, red are Hapoel Jerusalem wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ironi Tiberias at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
- W2-1away to Maccabi Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona29 August 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Petah Tikva22 August 2026
Hapoel Jerusalem
- W4-2Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva29 August 2026
- L2-5Maccabi Tel Aviv23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
- N. Gbamblé1 goals
- A. Cohen1 goals
Hapoel Jerusalem
- A. Idoko2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ironi Tiberias carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.26 for Hapoel Jerusalem. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Ironi Tiberias and 0.80 for Hapoel Jerusalem. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ironi Tiberias rate 0.61 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Jerusalem rate 0.46 and 1.54.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hapoel Jerusalem, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ironi Tiberias the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ironi Tiberias against 0.8 for Hapoel Jerusalem. Ironi Tiberias's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.54 for Hapoel Jerusalem.