Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Ironi Tiberias 2-2 Hapoel Jerusalem.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Ironi Tiberias, 30% draw, 24% Hapoel Jerusalem — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ironi Tiberias at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Line-ups
- 22I. SharonG
- 30M. BadjieD
- 17R. UngerD
- 37O. BačoD
- 13Z. MorganD
- 14G. SankerD
- 8A. CohenM
- 18E. ShamirM
- 23C. KouakouM
- 12Ghanam CaseF
- 84N. GbambléF
- 55Gons Abu NigmaG
- 1G. AmosG
- 11S. FarhudF
- 5N. ChenD
- 19G. Ma'atukD
- 99A. MiranyanF
- 16Bar·NuhiM
- 21Yarin SerdalM
- 77A. YehudaF
- 55N. ZamirG
- 16O. AgvadishD
- 4Y. LaishD
- 3N. MalmudD
- 20O. NadirD
- 7O. AlmagorM
- 91C. TiéhiM
- 14O. AbuhavM
- 25A. IdokoM
- 17Abdulsalam SaniF
- 33I. DaphahF
- 23Nati ShafrauM
- 18L. MizrachiD
- 8I. MadmonM
- 22T. HaimovichD
- 1B. Gordin AnbaryG
- 11Y. DistalfeldM
- 26I. CohenD
- 9E. ChilufyaF
- 19N. VrasanaF
Form going into Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Maccabi Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona29 August 2026
Hapoel Jerusalem
All competitions we cover
- W4-2Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
- 18 May 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 0–2 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 17 January 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 2–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 4 October 2025Ironi Tiberias 1–0 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 3 May 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 3–1 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 1 February 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 4–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Hapoel Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- A. Idoko42
- N. Vrasana40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Jerusalem drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Ironi Tiberias at 46% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ghanam Case 41' for Ironi Tiberias, N. Vrasana 47' for Hapoel Jerusalem, andrew idoko 77' for Hapoel Jerusalem, Ziv Morgan 90+2' for Ironi Tiberias.
How the call on Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel Jerusalem has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 35% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 30% / 24%: the biggest move is the draw, down 5 points.
- Ironi Tiberias win46%▲ +4
- Draw30%▼ −5
- Hapoel Jerusalem win24%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.