Hibernian vs Kilmarnock Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Hibernian 0-1 Kilmarnock.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Hibernian, 26% draw, 27% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hibernian at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Line-ups
- 1R. SallingerG
- 6J. KerrD
- 15J. IredaleD
- 27K. MegwaD
- 24J. DevaneyM
- 25F. PasslackM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 23C. WrightM
- 3A. MayorM
- 22A. ŠutoF
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 11J. NewellM
- 9N. LoweF
- 4G. HanleyD
- 7O. EldingF
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 19N. CaddenM
- 10M. BoyleF
- 47A. AbdulaiM
- 35F. OwensG
- 1M. StryjekG
- 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 14G. StangerD
- 8E. RingM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 49B. RiceM
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenM
- 10T. John-JulesM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 9J. HugillF
- 5M. O'HaraM
- 19J. MeierD
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 37C. BurkeF
- 2J. BrandonD
- 27I. OwenF
- 12C. FerrieG
- 29D. DanielsF
Form going into Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Hibernian
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
- L1-3Heart of Midlothian3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dundee30 August 2026
- L2-3Gent27 August 2026
- D0-0away to Gent20 August 2026
Kilmarnock
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
- L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
- L3-4away to St Johnstone2 August 2026
What these results say
- Hibernian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hibernian | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
- 4 April 2026Hibernian 3–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 3 January 2026Kilmarnock 1–3 HibernianPremiership
- 10 August 2025Hibernian 2–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 15 March 2025Kilmarnock 1–1 HibernianPremiership
- 29 December 2024Hibernian 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Kilmarnock
Hibernian
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kilmarnock won 1–0 at Hibernian. The model had leaned towards a win for Hibernian at 47% and given a win for Kilmarnock 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: George Stanger 40' for Kilmarnock. Sent off: Djenairo Daniels (Kilmarnock) 90+2'.
How the call on Hibernian v Kilmarnock has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Hibernian's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Hibernian win47%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Kilmarnock win27%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.