Hibernian
vs
Kilmarnock
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Hibernian 2–1 Kilmarnock
The model makes it 47% Hibernian, 26% draw, 27% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Hibernian 2.14, Kilmarnock 1.32.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Hibernian wins, grey are draws, red are Kilmarnock wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hibernian at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Hibernian
- L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
- L1-3Heart of Midlothian3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dundee30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Rangers9 August 2026
- L1-2Motherwell2 August 2026
Kilmarnock
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
- L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
- L3-4away to St Johnstone2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hibernian | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
- 4 April 2026Hibernian 3–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 3 January 2026Kilmarnock 1–3 HibernianPremiership
- 10 August 2025Hibernian 2–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 15 March 2025Kilmarnock 1–1 HibernianPremiership
- 29 December 2024Hibernian 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 1 September 2024Kilmarnock 1–1 HibernianPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Kilmarnock
Hibernian
- C. Wright2 goals
- M. Boyle2 goals
Kilmarnock
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hibernian carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.25 for Kilmarnock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Hibernian and 1.32 for Kilmarnock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hibernian rate 0.69 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kilmarnock rate 0.57 and 1.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hibernian a 0.7% chance of the title and Kilmarnock 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hibernian the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Hibernian against 1.32 for Kilmarnock. Hibernian's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.91 for Kilmarnock.