Motherwell
vs
Aberdeen
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Motherwell 1–0 Aberdeen
The model makes it 46% Motherwell, 29% draw, 25% Aberdeen — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Motherwell 1.63, Aberdeen 0.91.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Motherwell wins, grey are draws, red are Aberdeen wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Motherwell at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Motherwell
- L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
- W3-0Dundee United2 September 2026
- D3-3away to St Mirren30 August 2026
- D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
Aberdeen
- D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Celtic2 September 2026
- L0-1Rangers30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Dundee8 August 2026
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Aberdeen
- 18 February 2026Aberdeen 2–0 MotherwellFA Cup
- 15 February 2026Motherwell 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 9 November 2025Aberdeen 1–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 27 September 2025Motherwell 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 20 September 2025Aberdeen 0–1 MotherwellLeague Cup
- 29 March 2025Aberdeen 4–1 MotherwellPremiership
Leading scorers: Motherwell and Aberdeen
Motherwell
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goals2 assists
- A. Lowry1 goals1 assists
Aberdeen
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Motherwell carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.25 for Aberdeen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Motherwell and 0.91 for Aberdeen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motherwell rate 0.58 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aberdeen rate 0.52 and 1.73.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Motherwell a 3.7% chance of the title and Aberdeen 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motherwell the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Motherwell against 0.91 for Aberdeen. Motherwell's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.73 for Aberdeen.