15 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Motherwell vs Aberdeen Premiership prediction & result

Fir Park, Motherwell
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Motherwell 0-4 Aberdeen.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Motherwell, 29% draw, 25% Aberdeen — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Motherwell at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motherwell0%Draw1%Aberdeen99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Lewis Mayo
38'
⚽Gavin Molloy
Tom Sparrow
40'
45'
🔁Lewis Mayoout: Jack Milne
46'
⚽Connor Patrick Ronanassist: Kevin Nisbet
🔁Tawanda Maswanhiseout: Sebastian Palmer-Houlden
53'
🔁Jardell Kangaout: Ibrahim Said
53'
Emmanuel Longelo
53'
63'
Afeez Aremu Olalekan
64'
🔁Afeez Aremu Olalekanout: Alexander Briedl
🔁Regan Charles-Cookout: Willy Gabriel Vogt
67'
🔁Joe Hodgeout: Dylan Levitt
68'
72'
🔁Findlay Marshallout: Stuart Armstrong
72'
🔁Toyosi Olusanyaout: Ayoub Mouloua
🔁Alex·Lowryout: Eythor Bjørgolfsson
75'
76'
⚽Ayoub Moulouaassist: Connor Patrick Ronan
76'
Ayoub Mouloua
78'
🔁Mats Knoesterout: Daniel Happe
87'
⚽Kevin Nisbetassist: Marius Müller

Match stats — Motherwell vs Aberdeen

69%Possession31%
12Shots11
5On target4
5Corners2

Line-ups

Motherwell 4-2-2-2
  • 1A. PaulsenG
  • 7T. SparrowD
  • 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
  • 5M. MoormannD
  • 45M. EmmanuelD
  • 8L. FadingerM
  • 71J. HodgeM
  • 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseM
  • 11A. LowryM
  • 13J. KangaF
  • 17R. Charles-CookF
Substitutes
  • 21M. ConnellyG
  • 63D. LevittM
  • 2S. O'DonnellD
  • 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
  • 19I. SaidF
  • 15E. Björgólfs­sonF
  • 77W. VogtF
  • 20Dylan WilliamsD
  • 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
Coach: Alfred Johansson
Aberdeen 5-3-2
  • 27M. MüllerG
  • 28C. CaddenD
  • 23L. MayoD
  • 5M. KnoesterD
  • 21G. MolloyD
  • 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
  • 25C. RonanM
  • 32A. AremuM
  • 40F. MarshallM
  • 20T. OlusanyaF
  • 15K. NisbetF
Substitutes
  • 10A. BriedlM
  • 26D. HappeD
  • 30D. KleinG
  • 22J. MilneD
  • 9A. MoulouaF
  • 31M. NteloF
  • 11Lewis SmithF
  • 17S. ArmstrongM
  • 7Tony YoganeF
Coach: S. Robinson

Form going into Motherwell vs Aberdeen

Motherwell

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
  • W3-0Dundee United2 September 2026
  • D3-3away to St Mirren30 August 2026
  • L1-4away to SC Freiburg27 August 2026
  • L1-3SC Freiburg20 August 2026

Aberdeen

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Celtic2 September 2026
  • L0-1Rangers30 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Dundee8 August 2026
  • W2-1Heart of Midlothian1 August 2026

What these results say

  • Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Motherwell scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Motherwell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aberdeen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aberdeen failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aberdeen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Motherwell112361320-79
9Aberdeen113261214-211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Aberdeen

  • 18 February 2026Aberdeen 2–0 MotherwellFA Cup
  • 15 February 2026Motherwell 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
  • 9 November 2025Aberdeen 1–1 MotherwellPremiership
  • 27 September 2025Motherwell 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
  • 20 September 2025Aberdeen 0–1 MotherwellLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Motherwell and Aberdeen

Motherwell

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lowry31

Aberdeen

GoalsAssists

  • K. Nisbet43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aberdeen won 4–0 at Motherwell. The model had leaned towards a win for Motherwell at 46% and given a win for Aberdeen 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gavin Molloy 38' for Aberdeen, Connor Patrick Ronan 46' for Aberdeen, Ayoub Mouloua 76' for Aberdeen, Kevin Nisbet 87' for Aberdeen.

How the call on Motherwell v Aberdeen has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.

  1. Motherwell win46%▼ −1
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Aberdeen win25%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.