15 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Bristol City vs Lincoln Championship prediction & result

Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Bristol City 0-1 Lincoln.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Bristol City, 29% draw, 32% Lincoln — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bristol City at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bristol City0%Draw4%Lincoln96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Ben House
Lisav Naif Eissat
28'
37'
Deji Elerewe
lorent tolaj
41'
45'
F. Draper
53'
⚽F. Draperassist: Ben House
🔁Jed Wallaceout: Dominic Ballard
59'
63'
🔁Chiedozie Ogbeneout: Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
68'
Ryley Towler
69'
George Wickens
71'
🔁F. Draperout: Robert Nicholas Street
71'
🔁Adam Reachout: Daniel Oyegoke
🔁Robert Dickieout: Robert Atkinson
76'
🔁Scott Twineout: Sam Greenwood
76'
🔁lorent tolajout: Elijah Adebayo
76'
🔁Cameron Pringout: Sam Bellis
86'
90+6'
🔁Ivan Varfolomeevout: Tom Bayliss

Match stats — Bristol City vs Lincoln

67%Possession33%
18Shots9
4On target3
13Corners4

Line-ups

Bristol City 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. TickleG
  • 21Rio CardinesD
  • 16R. DickieD
  • 2L. EissatD
  • 3C. PringD
  • 12J. KnightM
  • 27G. YahM
  • 17J. WallaceM
  • 10S. TwineM
  • 7Y. HirakawaM
  • 9L. TolajF
Substitutes
  • 4A. RandellM
  • 19G. TannerD
  • 45E. AdebayoF
  • 5R. AtkinsonD
  • 23D. BallardF
  • 11S. BellF
  • 40B. CollinsG
  • 38N. EileD
  • 20S. GreenwoodM
Coach: M. Skubala
Lincoln 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. WickensG
  • 25D. ElereweD
  • 15S. BradleyD
  • 6R. TowlerD
  • 16D. JefferiesM
  • 24I. VarfolomeevM
  • 14C. McGrandlesM
  • 3A. ReachM
  • 18B. HouseM
  • 27C. OgbeneM
  • 34F. DraperF
Substitutes
  • 4A. CoubișD
  • 46J. GauciG
  • 7R. HackettM
  • 26Y. KonakM
  • 11M. LadefogedF
  • 19I. OlaofeF
  • 33D. OyegokeD
  • 17R. StreetF
  • 8T. BaylissM
Coach: Chris Cohen

Form going into Bristol City vs Lincoln

Bristol City

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to Southampton12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Burnley5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Preston1 September 2026
  • W2-1Portsmouth29 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Birmingham22 August 2026

Lincoln

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Preston12 September 2026
  • D1-1Southampton5 September 2026
  • D0-0Blackburn1 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Bolton29 August 2026
  • L1-3Portsmouth22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Bristol City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Bristol City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Bristol City had three goals or more.
  • Lincoln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Lincoln had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Bristol City124351215-315
15Lincoln124351320-715

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Lincoln

  • 8 November 2022Bristol City 1–3 LincolnLeague Cup

The result against the call

Lincoln won 1–0 at Bristol City. The model had leaned towards a win for Bristol City at 39% and given a win for Lincoln 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: F. Draper 53' for Lincoln.

How the call on Bristol City v Lincoln has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Bristol City's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Bristol City win39%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Lincoln win32%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.