Estrela vs Famalicao Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Estrela 2-2 Famalicao.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Estrela, 28% draw, 36% Famalicao — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Estrela at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estrela vs Famalicao
Line-ups
- 24Léo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Luan PatrickD
- 5S. LekovićD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 39Eddy DoueM
- 71E. Pedro VangaM
- 99A. MarcusM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 10I. StoicaM
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 51Diogo PintoG
- 8RobinhoM
- 78Santiago SerraM
- 93B. SouzaM
- 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
- 80AlissonF
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 79A. ChernevD
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 25L. CarevićG
- 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
- 3L. RealpeD
- 4F. van BreemenD
- 28Pedro FranciscoD
- 14Mathias De AmorimM
- 8Marcos PeñaM
- 18R. BeneyM
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 7SorrisoM
- 70G. KoutsiasF
- 11Óscar ArandaF
- 9U. AbubakarF
- 2Gustavo GarciaD
- 23Gil DiasF
- 24Mathis JangealM
- 5L. MeyerD
- 15Víctor RofinoD
- 33P. SalasF
- 10Pedro SantosF
Form going into Estrela vs Famalicao
Estrela
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Nacional30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Alverca15 August 2026
- D2-2Sporting CP8 August 2026
Famalicao
All competitions we cover
- D0-0GIL Vicente30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Santa Clara23 August 2026
- L1-2Maritimo16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Estoril7 August 2026
What these results say
- Famalicao did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Famalicao conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Famalicao had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estrela vs Famalicao
- 11 May 2026Estrela 0–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 27 December 2025Famalicao 2–3 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 25 January 2025Famalicao 0–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 19 August 2024Estrela 0–3 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 16 March 2024Famalicao 0–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Estrela and Famalicao
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- L. Antonetti51
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
Famalicao
GoalsAssists
- G. Koutsias50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Estrela and Famalicao drew 2–2. The goals: Georgios Koutsias 2' for Famalicao, Leandro Antonetti 57' for Estrela, Max Scholze 69' for Estrela, Georgios Koutsias (penalty) 80' for Famalicao. Sent off: Pedro Miguel Marques da Costa Filipe (Estrela) 90+4'.