Estrela vs Famalicao Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Estrela 2-2 Famalicao.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Estrela, 28% draw, 36% Famalicao — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estrela at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estrela vs Famalicao
Line-ups
- 24Léo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Luan PatrickD
- 5S. LekovićD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 39Eddy DoueM
- 71E. Pedro VangaM
- 99A. MarcusM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 10I. StoicaM
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 51Diogo PintoG
- 8RobinhoM
- 78Santiago SerraM
- 93B. SouzaM
- 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
- 80AlissonF
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 79A. ChernevD
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 25L. CarevićG
- 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
- 3L. RealpeD
- 4F. van BreemenD
- 28Pedro FranciscoD
- 14Mathias De AmorimM
- 8Marcos PeñaM
- 18R. BeneyM
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 7SorrisoM
- 70G. KoutsiasF
- 11Óscar ArandaF
- 9U. AbubakarF
- 2Gustavo GarciaD
- 23Gil DiasF
- 24Mathis JangealM
- 5L. MeyerD
- 15Víctor RofinoD
- 33P. SalasF
- 10Pedro SantosF
Form going into Estrela vs Famalicao
Estrela
- W3-2away to Nacional30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Alverca15 August 2026
Famalicao
- D0-0GIL Vicente30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Santa Clara23 August 2026
- L1-2Maritimo16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Estrela | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estrela vs Famalicao
- 5 September 2026Estrela 2–2 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 11 May 2026Estrela 0–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 27 December 2025Famalicao 2–3 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 25 January 2025Famalicao 0–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 19 August 2024Estrela 0–3 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 16 March 2024Famalicao 0–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Estrela and Famalicao
Estrela
- L. Antonetti4 goals
- I. Stoica3 goals1 assists
- A. Marcus2 goals1 assists
Famalicao
- G. Koutsias3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.