Sporting CP vs Nacional Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sporting CP 2-0 Nacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Sporting CP, 29% draw, 24% Nacional — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sporting CP at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting CP vs Nacional
Line-ups
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 6Z. DebastD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 20M. AraújoD
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10Geny CatamoM
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 58Flávio GonçalvesM
- 97L. SuárezF
- 50Rodrigo DiasD
- 28J. DerryF
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 19N. IrankundaF
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 31Luis GuilhermeF
- 30KaiqueG
- 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
- 1Renato BellucciG
- 34Léo SantosD
- 33Francisco GonçalvesD
- 38Zé VitorD
- 52Wesley GasolinaM
- 6Matheus DiasM
- 8Miguel BaezaM
- 21W. KokoloM
- 11S. GavrielM
- 7M. JensenM
- 99Pablo RuanF
- 9A. ObandoF
- 17F. NavaF
- 50KevynG
- 15C. LabidiM
- 31D. DongmoM
- 20Matchoi DjalóF
- 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la CruzD
- 10Daniel JúniorM
- 88DeivisonM
Form going into Sporting CP vs Nacional
Sporting CP
All competitions we cover
- W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
- W3-1Alverca22 August 2026
- W3-2Guimaraes14 August 2026
- D2-2away to Estrela8 August 2026
Nacional
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Estrela30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Guimaraes23 August 2026
- W2-0Estoril16 August 2026
- D2-2away to Santa Clara10 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting CP went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Sporting CP scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Sporting CP had three goals or more.
- Nacional failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nacional scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nacional conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 13 | Nacional | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Nacional
- 1 February 2026Sporting CP 2–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 23 August 2025Nacional 1–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 25 January 2025Sporting CP 2–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 29 October 2024Sporting CP 3–1 NacionalTaça da Liga
- 17 August 2024Nacional 1–6 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Nacional
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez91
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting CP beat Nacional 2–0. The model had made a win for Sporting CP its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Luis Suárez (penalty) 32' for Sporting CP, Flávio Gonçalves 49' for Sporting CP.