Sporting CP vs Nacional Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sporting CP 2-0 Nacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Sporting CP, 29% draw, 24% Nacional — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting CP vs Nacional
Line-ups
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 6Z. DebastD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 20M. AraújoD
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10Geny CatamoM
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 58Flávio GonçalvesM
- 97L. SuárezF
- 50Rodrigo DiasD
- 28J. DerryF
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 19N. IrankundaF
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 31Luis GuilhermeF
- 30KaiqueG
- 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
- 1Renato BellucciG
- 34Léo SantosD
- 33Francisco GonçalvesD
- 38Zé VitorD
- 52Wesley GasolinaM
- 6Matheus DiasM
- 8Miguel BaezaM
- 21W. KokoloM
- 11S. GavrielM
- 7M. JensenM
- 99Pablo RuanF
- 9A. ObandoF
- 17F. NavaF
- 50KevynG
- 15C. LabidiM
- 31D. DongmoM
- 20Matchoi DjalóF
- 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la CruzD
- 10Daniel JúniorM
- 88DeivisonM
Form going into Sporting CP vs Nacional
Sporting CP
- W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
- W3-1Alverca22 August 2026
- W3-2Vitória SC14 August 2026
Nacional
- L2-3Estrela30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vitória SC23 August 2026
- W2-0Estoril16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 14 |
| 15 | Nacional | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Nacional
- 5 September 2026Sporting CP 2–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 1 February 2026Sporting CP 2–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 23 August 2025Nacional 1–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 25 January 2025Sporting CP 2–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 29 October 2024Sporting CP 3–1 NacionalTaça da Liga
- 17 August 2024Nacional 1–6 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Nacional
Sporting CP
- L. Suárez5 goals1 assists
- Flávio Gonçalves3 goals1 assists
- F. Ioannidis2 goals2 assists
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.