SC Paderborn 07
vs
SC Freiburg
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 43% SC Paderborn 07, 35% draw, 22% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 2.33, 2.86 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: SC Paderborn 07 1.00, SC Freiburg 0.63.
Both teams to score: 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 22%, under 2.5: 78%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg
- 1 November 2023SC Freiburg 1–3 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
- 25 January 2020SC Freiburg 0–2 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 24 August 2019SC Paderborn 07 1–3 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 29 April 2016SC Paderborn 07 1–2 SC Freiburg2. Bundesliga
- 22 November 2015SC Freiburg 4–1 SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
- 2 May 2015SC Freiburg 1–2 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
The two sides
SC Paderborn 07 carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.78 for SC Freiburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): SC Freiburg W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 0.63 for SC Freiburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Paderborn 07 rate 0.55 in attack and 0.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Freiburg rate 0.82 and 0.96.
That points to 22% for over two and a half goals and 30% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (20%), 1-0 (19%), 1-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Paderborn 07 the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 against 0.63 for SC Freiburg. SC Paderborn 07's attack/defence rating is 0.55/0.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/0.96 for SC Freiburg.