Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Krylia Sovetov 2-2 FC Krasnodar.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Krylia Sovetov, 29% draw, 36% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Krasnodar at 36% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar
Line-ups
- 30S. PesjakovG
- 15N. RasskazovD
- 23N. ChernovD
- 47S. BozhinD
- 4Y. GorshkovD
- 22Fernando CostanzaM
- 17I. ChesnokovM
- 10M. KramaricM
- 8M. VityugovM
- 2K. PecheninM
- 19I. OleynikovF
- 80N. KokarevG
- 39E. FrolovG
- 72D. FernandezD
- 5D. OrozD
- 18I. LepskiiD
- 3T. GaldamesD
- 11A. RahmanovicM
- 20K. StolbovM
- 77D. MakarovM
- 1S. AgkatsevG
- 40I. VakhaniaD
- 3V. TormenaD
- 5Jubal JuniorD
- 15L. OlazaD
- 53A. ChernikovM
- 8Douglas AugustoM
- 10D. VorobyevM
- 18ChristianM
- 11Joao BatxiM
- 9J. CordobaF
- 16A. KoryakinG
- 98S. PetrovD
- 17V. PaltsevD
- 21M. OzdoevM
- 47D. UtkinM
- 6K. LeniniM
- 23J. BoselliF
Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar
Krylia Sovetov
- D3-3away to Akhmat29 August 2026
- W3-0away to Akron23 August 2026
FC Krasnodar
- W1-0FC Rostov29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dinamo Makhachkala23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar
- 30 November 2025FC Krasnodar 5–0 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 17 September 2025Krylia Sovetov 1–2 FC KrasnodarCup
- 24 August 2025Krylia Sovetov 0–6 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 29 July 2025FC Krasnodar 1–2 Krylia SovetovCup
- 1 March 2025FC Krasnodar 1–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 28 October 2024Krylia Sovetov 1–2 FC KrasnodarPremier League
Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar
Krylia Sovetov
- A. Rahmanović3 goals
FC Krasnodar
- N. Krivtsov3 goals1 assist
- Jubal3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.