Krylia Sovetov
vs
FC Krasnodar
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 20% Krylia Sovetov, 19% draw, 61% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 5.00, 5.26 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Krylia Sovetov 1.35, FC Krasnodar 2.42.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Krylia Sovetov
- L1-4Dinamo Makhachkala16 August 2026
- L0-2Baltika8 August 2026
- D1-1away to CSKA Moscow1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Dynamo25 July 2026
FC Krasnodar
- W1-0Akhmat15 August 2026
- W2-1away to Spartak Moscow9 August 2026
- W3-2Fakel2 August 2026
- W3-1away to Rubin26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Krylia Sovetov | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar
- 30 November 2025FC Krasnodar 5–0 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 17 September 2025Krylia Sovetov 1–2 FC KrasnodarCup
- 24 August 2025Krylia Sovetov 0–6 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 29 July 2025FC Krasnodar 1–2 Krylia SovetovCup
- 1 March 2025FC Krasnodar 1–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 28 October 2024Krylia Sovetov 1–2 FC KrasnodarPremier League
Leading scorers
Krylia Sovetov
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Krasnodar
- N. Krivtsov3 goals1 assists
- Christian2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Krylia Sovetov carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.55 for FC Krasnodar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Krylia Sovetov D-D-L-L; FC Krasnodar W-W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 2.42 for FC Krasnodar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Krylia Sovetov rate 0.46 in attack and 2.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Krasnodar rate 0.84 and 1.55.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Krasnodar the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov against 2.42 for FC Krasnodar. Krylia Sovetov's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.55 for FC Krasnodar.