GIL Vicente
vs
Academico Viseu
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 37% GIL Vicente, 27% draw, 36% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: GIL Vicente 1.38, Academico Viseu 1.36.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
GIL Vicente
- W1-0Rio Ave9 August 2026
Academico Viseu
- D2-2away to Maritimo22 August 2026
- L0-1Santa Clara15 August 2026
- D2-2away to Benfica9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Academico Viseu | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Academico Viseu
- 18 October 2025Academico Viseu 2–1 GIL VicenteTaça de Portugal
- 14 January 2021GIL Vicente 3–2 Academico ViseuTaça de Portugal
- 29 April 2018Academico Viseu 1–0 GIL VicenteSegunda Liga
- 16 December 2017GIL Vicente 0–0 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 5 February 2017Academico Viseu 1–2 GIL VicenteSegunda Liga
- 24 August 2016GIL Vicente 0–0 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
The two sides
GIL Vicente carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.92 for Academico Viseu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): GIL Vicente W; Academico Viseu D-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for GIL Vicente and 1.36 for Academico Viseu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GIL Vicente rate 0.95 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Academico Viseu rate 0.85 and 0.77.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GIL Vicente the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for GIL Vicente against 1.36 for Academico Viseu. GIL Vicente's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/0.77 for Academico Viseu.