Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Holstein Kiel 2-2 1. FC Nürnberg.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Holstein Kiel, 29% draw, 30% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Holstein Kiel at 41% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. WeinerG
- 32H. SekineD
- 13I. NekicD
- 26D. ZecD
- 47J. TolkinD
- 20A. KapralikM
- 8G. BalziM
- 28J. MeffertM
- 15K. DavidsenM
- 10J. TherkelsenM
- 19P. HarresF
- 31M. EngelhardtG
- 41L. RothenhagenG
- 5N. MadsenD
- 3N. TakahashiD
- 40L. ParduziD
- 30T. TasdelenM
- 43T. WieseM
- 11G. de RegtF
- 44M. Richter MonserratM
- 1J. ReichertG
- 32T. JanischD
- 4A. KalogeropoulosD
- 20F. OttoD
- 41E. PorstnerD
- 6A. MarkhievM
- 8J. FernandezM
- 10J. JustvanM
- 22F. BeckerM
- 23M. A. ZomaM
- 19P. ScobelF
- 13R. LisewskiG
- 21G. MasourasD
- 14A. CeresoliD
- 36K. MandicD
- 18R. LubachM
- 16M. SoldicM
- 9S. HaugenF
- 11W. BovingF
- 7R. GhriebF
Form going into Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
- L0-2away to 1. FC Magdeburg30 August 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026
1. FC Nürnberg
- W4-1Arminia Bielefeld29 August 2026
- W4-2away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg
- 14 March 2026Holstein Kiel 2–3 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 19 October 20251. FC Nürnberg 1–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 6 April 2024FC Nurnberg 0–4 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 29 October 2023Holstein Kiel 0–2 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
- 15 April 2023Holstein Kiel 2–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
- 9 October 2022FC Nurnberg 2–3 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
- P. Harres4 goals2 assists
1. FC Nürnberg
- M. Zoma6 goals
- J. Justvan3 goals1 assist
- P. Scobel3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.