FC Schalke 04
vs
Bayern München
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 49% FC Schalke 04, 21% draw, 30% Bayern München — fair odds of 2.04, 4.76 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: FC Schalke 04 2.17, Bayern München 1.68.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München
- 13 May 2023Bayern Munich 6–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 12 November 2022FC Schalke 04 0–2 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- 24 January 2021FC Schalke 04 0–4 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- 18 September 2020Bayern Munich 8–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 3 March 2020FC Schalke 04 0–1 Bayern MunichDFB Pokal
- 25 January 2020Bayern Munich 5–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Schalke 04 carry a model rating of 7.15 against 7.19 for Bayern München. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.68 for Bayern München. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Schalke 04 rate 1.22 in attack and 0.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bayern München rate 1.76 and 0.94.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Schalke 04 the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 against 1.68 for Bayern München. FC Schalke 04's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.76/0.94 for Bayern München.