Alverca vs SC Braga Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alverca 1-2 SC Braga.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Alverca, 32% draw, 29% SC Braga — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Alverca at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alverca vs SC Braga
Line-ups
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 4Y. BojangD
- 27Toni TamaritM
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 35RayanM
- 12I. JamesM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 17S. MerhegF
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesD
- 15I. JulianD
- 8Vasco MoreiraM
- 7André VidigalM
- 6D. GuiM
- 93Zé RafaelM
- 19D. CamaraF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 31Bernardo FontesG
- 14G. LagerbielkeD
- 6Vitor CarvalhoD
- 44A. BajramiD
- 2Víctor GómezM
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 34E. TıknazM
- 7Diogo TravassosM
- 20M. DorgelesF
- 10Pau VictorF
- 50Diego RodriguesF
- 19J. WindF
- 9Fran NavarroF
- 17J. MiloševićF
- 77Gabri MartínezF
- 16Tomás MarquésM
- 26B. Arrey-MbiD
- 37A. BarišićD
- 22Sergio BarciaD
- 12Tiago SáG
Form going into Alverca vs SC Braga
Alverca
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting CP22 August 2026
- D2-2Estrela15 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto9 August 2026
SC Braga
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Vitória SC31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Austria Vienna27 August 2026
- W2-0Austria Vienna20 August 2026
- D0-0away to Dinamo Minsk13 August 2026
- D2-2away to Moreirense9 August 2026
What these results say
- Alverca did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Alverca conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Alverca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- SC Braga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SC Braga kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SC Braga had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alverca vs SC Braga
- 25 January 2026SC Braga 5–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 17 August 2025Alverca 0–3 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Alverca and SC Braga
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
SC Braga
GoalsAssists
- Pau Victor51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SC Braga won 2–1 at Alverca. The model had leaned towards a win for Alverca at 39% and given a win for SC Braga 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Francisco Chiquinho (penalty) 27' for Alverca, Pau Victor 50' for SC Braga, Pau Victor 57' for SC Braga.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.