Alverca vs SC Braga Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alverca 1-2 SC Braga.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Alverca, 32% draw, 29% SC Braga — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alverca at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alverca vs SC Braga
Line-ups
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 4Y. BojangD
- 27Toni TamaritM
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 35RayanM
- 12I. JamesM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 17S. MerhegF
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesD
- 15I. JulianD
- 8Vasco MoreiraM
- 7André VidigalM
- 6D. GuiM
- 93Zé RafaelM
- 19D. CamaraF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 31Bernardo FontesG
- 14G. LagerbielkeD
- 6Vitor CarvalhoD
- 44A. BajramiD
- 2Víctor GómezM
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 34E. TıknazM
- 7Diogo TravassosM
- 20M. DorgelesF
- 10Pau VictorF
- 50Diego RodriguesF
- 19J. WindF
- 9Fran NavarroF
- 17J. MiloševićF
- 77Gabri MartínezF
- 16Tomás MarquésM
- 26B. Arrey-MbiD
- 37A. BarišićD
- 22Sergio BarciaD
- 12Tiago SáG
Form going into Alverca vs SC Braga
Alverca
- D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting CP22 August 2026
- D2-2Estrela15 August 2026
SC Braga
- W1-0Vitória SC31 August 2026
- D2-2away to Moreirense9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alverca | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | SC Braga | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alverca vs SC Braga
- 5 September 2026Alverca 1–2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 25 January 2026SC Braga 5–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 17 August 2025Alverca 0–3 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Alverca and SC Braga
Alverca
- Vivaldo Semedo2 goals
SC Braga
- Pau Victor3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.