5 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Maritimo vs Benfica Primeira Liga prediction & result

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Final score: Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Maritimo, 26% draw, 43% Benfica — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Benfica at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Maritimo0%Draw1%Benfica99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Leandro Barreiro
17'
🔁Alexander Bahout: Jakub Kamiński
Vladan Danilović
40'
41'
Heorhii Sudakov
Igor Julião
42'
61'
Tomás Araújo
62'
🔁Heorhii Sudakovout: Andreas Schjelderup
62'
🔁Rafa Silvaout: Alessandro Circati
🔁Vladan Danilovićout: Israel Isaac Ayuma
66'
🔁Bryan Limbombeout: Samuel Bamba
66'
66'
Alessandro Circati
71'
⚽Leandro Barreiroassist: Vangelis Pavlidis
🔁Igor Juliãoout: Nilton Varela
78'
🔁Adrián Butzkeout: Maurice Boakye
78'
82'
🔁Vangelis Pavlidisout: Jhon Durán
82'
🔁João Palhinhaout: Enzo Barrenechea
82'
⚽Gianluca Prestianni
🔁Raphael Guzzoout: Maxime Dominguez
90+2'

Match stats — Maritimo vs Benfica

40%Possession60%
6Shots11
1On target6
3Corners5

Line-ups

Maritimo 4-3-3
  • 13Alfonso PastorG
  • 2Igor JuliãoD
  • 4Rafael FernandesD
  • 44Romain CorreiaD
  • 23Paulo HenriqueD
  • 14Raphael GuzzoM
  • 6Rodrigo AndradeM
  • 18V. DanilovićM
  • 35B. LimbombeF
  • 17Adrián ButzkeF
  • 10Martín TejónF
Substitutes
  • 21I. AlaniM
  • 66I. AyumaM
  • 27S. BambaF
  • 8M. DominguezM
  • 5Nilton VarelaD
  • 22G. SzalaiD
  • 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
  • 30Fran VieitesG
  • 90Maurice Osei BoakyeF
Coach: M. van der Gaag
Benfica 4-2-3-1
  • 24Samuel SoaresG
  • 6A. BahD
  • 44Tomás AraújoD
  • 2C. LengletD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 18L. BarreiroM
  • 36João PalhinhaM
  • 27RafaM
  • 10H. SudakovM
  • 25G. PrestianniM
  • 14V. PavlidisF
Substitutes
  • 22J. DuránF
  • 13J. KamińskiM
  • 11D. LukebakioF
  • 16ManuM
  • 77Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraM
  • 62J. NetoD
  • 21A. SchjelderupF
  • 1A. TrubinG
  • 72A. CabralF
Coach: Marco Silva

Form going into Maritimo vs Benfica

Maritimo

  • L1-2away to Arouca29 August 2026
  • D2-2Academico Viseu22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Famalicao16 August 2026

Benfica

  • W2-1Estoril31 August 2026
  • W7-0away to Casa Pia17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Maritimo6213711-47
2Benfica6510214+1716

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Benfica

  • 5 September 2026Maritimo 0–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
  • 12 March 2023Maritimo 0–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
  • 18 September 2022Benfica 5–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 30 April 2022Maritimo 0–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
  • 19 December 2021Benfica 7–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 5 April 2021Benfica 1–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Maritimo and Benfica

Maritimo

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Benfica

  • V. Pavlidis8 goals2 assists
  • G. Prestianni5 goals2 assists
  • L. Barreiro2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.