Maritimo vs Benfica Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Maritimo, 26% draw, 43% Benfica — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Benfica at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maritimo vs Benfica
Line-ups
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 18V. DanilovićM
- 35B. LimbombeF
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 10Martín TejónF
- 21I. AlaniM
- 66I. AyumaM
- 27S. BambaF
- 8M. DominguezM
- 5Nilton VarelaD
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 30Fran VieitesG
- 90Maurice Osei BoakyeF
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 6A. BahD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 27RafaM
- 10H. SudakovM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 22J. DuránF
- 13J. KamińskiM
- 11D. LukebakioF
- 16ManuM
- 77Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraM
- 62J. NetoD
- 21A. SchjelderupF
- 1A. TrubinG
- 72A. CabralF
Form going into Maritimo vs Benfica
Maritimo
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Arouca29 August 2026
- D2-2Academico Viseu22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Famalicao16 August 2026
- W1-0Casa Pia8 August 2026
Benfica
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Estoril31 August 2026
- W3-1away to Aarhus27 August 2026
- W3-1Aarhus20 August 2026
- W7-0away to Casa Pia17 August 2026
- D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian13 August 2026
What these results say
- Maritimo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Maritimo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Maritimo had three goals or more.
- Benfica went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Benfica won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 |
| 2 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 10 | +20 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Benfica
- 12 March 2023Maritimo 0–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 18 September 2022Benfica 5–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 30 April 2022Maritimo 0–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 19 December 2021Benfica 7–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 5 April 2021Benfica 1–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Maritimo and Benfica
Maritimo
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis113
- G. Prestianni74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benfica won 3–0 at Maritimo. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Leandro Barreiro 7' for Benfica, Leandro Barreiro 71' for Benfica, Gianluca Prestianni 82' for Benfica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.