Estrela
vs
Academico Viseu
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Estrela 2–1 Academico Viseu
The model makes it 37% Estrela, 27% draw, 36% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Estrela 1.70, Academico Viseu 1.62.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Estrela vs Academico Viseu
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Estrela wins, grey are draws, red are Academico Viseu wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estrela at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Estrela vs Academico Viseu
Estrela
- D3-3away to Rio Ave14 September 2026
- W2-1SC Braga10 September 2026
- D2-2Famalicao5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Nacional30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Alverca15 August 2026
Academico Viseu
- W2-1Vitória SC12 September 2026
- W1-0away to GIL Vicente6 September 2026
- L0-3FC Porto29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Maritimo22 August 2026
- L0-1Santa Clara15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Estrela | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Academico Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Estrela vs Academico Viseu
- 5 March 2023Academico Viseu 1–1 EstrelaSegunda Liga
- 12 September 2022Estrela 2–1 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 5 March 2022Academico Viseu 0–4 EstrelaSegunda Liga
- 10 October 2021Estrela 4–0 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Estrela and Academico Viseu
Estrela
- L. Antonetti4 goals
- I. Stoica3 goals1 assists
- A. Marcus2 goals1 assists
Academico Viseu
- André Clóvis2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Estrela carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.89 for Academico Viseu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Estrela and 1.62 for Academico Viseu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estrela rate 1.16 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Academico Viseu rate 0.97 and 0.90.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estrela the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Estrela against 1.62 for Academico Viseu. Estrela's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.9 for Academico Viseu.