Santa Clara
vs
SC Braga
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Santa Clara 1–0 SC Braga
The model makes it 39% Santa Clara, 30% draw, 31% SC Braga — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Santa Clara 1.37, SC Braga 1.09.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Santa Clara vs SC Braga
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Santa Clara wins, grey are draws, red are SC Braga wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Clara at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Santa Clara vs SC Braga
Santa Clara
- W2-1away to Arouca13 September 2026
- W4-0Rio Ave6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Alverca29 August 2026
- W1-0Famalicao23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Academico Viseu15 August 2026
SC Braga
- W1-0Estoril14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estrela10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
- W1-0Vitória SC31 August 2026
- D2-2away to Moreirense9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 | SC Braga | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Santa Clara vs SC Braga
- 26 April 2026Santa Clara 2–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 15 December 2025SC Braga 1–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 29 October 2025SC Braga 5–0 Santa ClaraTaça da Liga
- 3 May 2025SC Braga 1–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 22 December 2024Santa Clara 0–2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 14 May 2023SC Braga 5–3 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Santa Clara and SC Braga
Santa Clara
- Gonçalo Paciência5 goals1 assists
SC Braga
- Pau Victor3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Santa Clara carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.94 for SC Braga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Santa Clara and 1.09 for SC Braga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santa Clara rate 1.04 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Braga rate 0.95 and 0.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santa Clara a 0.1% chance of the title and SC Braga 2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Clara the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Santa Clara against 1.09 for SC Braga. Santa Clara's attack/defence rating is 1.04/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/0.81 for SC Braga.