Estoril vs Casa Pia Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Estoril 1-2 Casa Pia.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Estoril, 31% draw, 30% Casa Pia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estoril at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estoril vs Casa Pia
Line-ups
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 6Xavi SintesD
- 15Isma SierraD
- 21R. JurišićD
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 44M. RobinM
- 11N. OmerovićM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 9A. CamblanM
- 14Y. BegraouiF
- 90Tiago BritoM
- 35S. AmissahD
- 7André LacximicantF
- 99R. GuitaneM
- 3Fernando MedranoD
- 19Tiago Parreira ParenteD
- 17PeixinhoF
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 42J. ArnolinD
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 18GeraldesD
- 3KalyD
- 43David SousaD
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 16SilviM
- 80L. OforiM
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 98JPM
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 24S. PérezM
- 19K. PrietoF
- 77B. PauwelsF
- 17E. MaurinF
- 20A. JattaF
- 4João GoulartD
- 44Felipe SilvaD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 90CassianoF
Form going into Estoril vs Casa Pia
Estoril
Primeira Liga
- L0-1away to SC Braga14 September 2026
- D0-0Arouca7 September 2026
Casa Pia
Primeira Liga
- L1-4FC Porto12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vitória SC6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 2 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estoril vs Casa Pia
- 7 March 2026Estoril 0–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 3 October 2025Casa Pia 2–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 29 April 2025Casa Pia 1–3 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 15 December 2024Estoril 0–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 8 April 2024Casa Pia 0–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
The result against the call
Casa Pia won 2–1 at Estoril. The model had leaned towards a win for Estoril at 39% and given a win for Casa Pia 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ricard Sanchez Sendra 70' for Estoril, Selvi Clua 72' for Casa Pia, Benjamin Pauwels 89' for Casa Pia.
How the call on Estoril v Casa Pia has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 39% / 31% / 30%: the biggest move is Estoril's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Estoril win39%▼ −2
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Casa Pia win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.