SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SC Paderborn 07 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% SC Paderborn 07, 32% draw, 36% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Line-ups
- 15N. NollG
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 25T. SchellerD
- 22M. HansenD
- 17L. CurdaM
- 28L. UlrichM
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 40G. VidovićM
- 23R. ObermairM
- 18M. PieringerF
- 30S. MarinoF
- 27S. TiggesF
- 38D. ZeitlerF
- 6T. BaackM
- 20F. GötzeD
- 11S. MichelF
- 2Ruben MüllerF
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 1M. SchubertG
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerM
- 1O. BaumannG
- 34V. CoufalD
- 5O. KabakD
- 28K. MachidaD
- 39M. RotsD
- 20B. ContéM
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 14A. DaghimM
- 10A. HložekF
- 9Max MoerstedtF
- 17Nathan De CatM
- 15V. GendreyD
- 21A. HajdariD
- 2R. HranáčD
- 27A. KramarićF
- 19T. LemperleF
- 37L. PhilippG
- 8P. WimmerM
- 11F. AsllaniF
Form going into SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim
SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga
- L0-3away to Borussia Dortmund12 September 2026
1899 Hoffenheim
Bundesliga
- W2-1VfB Stuttgart12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim
- 23 May 2020SC Paderborn 07 1–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 1 November 20191899 Hoffenheim 3–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 21 March 2015SC Paderborn 07 0–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 25 October 20141899 Hoffenheim 1–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
The result against the call
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for 1899 Hoffenheim at 36% and given a win for SC Paderborn 07 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Santiago Castaneda 29' for SC Paderborn 07, Stefano Marino 42' for SC Paderborn 07, Adam Daghim 50' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Steffen Tigges 69' for SC Paderborn 07.
How the call on SC Paderborn 07 v 1899 Hoffenheim has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 35% / 33% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 32% / 32% / 36%: the biggest move is 1899 Hoffenheim's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- SC Paderborn 07 win32%▼ −3
- Draw32%▼ −1
- 1899 Hoffenheim win36%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.