FC Porto vs Benfica Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Porto 3-1 Benfica.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% FC Porto, 26% draw, 39% Benfica — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Porto vs Benfica
Line-ups
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 52Martim FernandesD
- 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 7WilliamF
- 19André SilvaF
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 64Luís GomesD
- 29S. GiménezF
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 9SamuF
- 77O. PietuszewskiF
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 21D. PrpićD
- 17Borja SainzF
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 6A. BahD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 8F. AursnesM
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 27RafaM
- 10H. SudakovM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 3A. CircatiD
- 22J. DuránF
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 34S. El KarouaniD
- 72A. CabralF
- 58Daniel BanjaquiD
- 13J. KamińskiF
- 11D. LukebakioF
- 21A. SchjelderupF
Form going into FC Porto vs Benfica
FC Porto
Primeira Liga
- W4-1away to Casa Pia12 September 2026
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
Benfica
Primeira Liga
- W3-1GIL Vicente13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Moreirense9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Porto vs Benfica
- 8 March 2026Benfica 2–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 14 January 2026FC Porto 1–0 BenficaTaça de Portugal
- 5 October 2025FC Porto 0–0 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 6 April 2025FC Porto 1–4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 10 November 2024Benfica 4–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: FC Porto and Benfica
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Gabri Veiga43
- Borja Sainz40
- André Silva32
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis93
- G. Prestianni64
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Porto beat Benfica 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Benfica at 39% and given a win for FC Porto 35%. The goals: Gabri Veiga 31' for FC Porto, Alexander Bah 51' for Benfica, Victor Froholdt 54' for FC Porto, Hwang In-Beom 60' for FC Porto. Sent off: Clément Lenglet (Benfica) 35'.
How the call on FC Porto v Benfica has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 35% / 26% / 39%: the biggest move is FC Porto's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FC Porto win35%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Benfica win39%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.