Vitória SC vs Moreirense Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Vitória SC 1-1 Moreirense.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Vitória SC, 29% draw, 23% Moreirense — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vitória SC at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitória SC vs Moreirense
Line-ups
- 48O. ZychG
- 23T. StrataD
- 21T. BorevkovićD
- 28Thiago BalieiroD
- 13João MendesD
- 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
- 44L. DoucetM
- 11GustavoM
- 10AlanM
- 7O. CamaraM
- 9A. JakupovicF
- 22J. CastilloG
- 19V. AnderssonM
- 82F. DiasD
- 2Miguel MagaD
- 6M. MitrovićM
- 16BeniM
- 17Miguel NogueiraM
- 29V. OuotroF
- 4Óscar RivasD
- 13André FerreiraG
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 26MaracásD
- 27KikoD
- 23N. JohnM
- 65Guilherme LiberatoM
- 10Kiko BondosoM
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 19Tiago AndradeM
- 79L. VonićF
- 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
- 99MaranhãoF
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 11LandersonF
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
Form going into Vitória SC vs Moreirense
Vitória SC
Primeira Liga
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu12 September 2026
- D0-0Casa Pia6 September 2026
Moreirense
Primeira Liga
- W3-1Maritimo14 September 2026
- L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitória SC vs Moreirense
- 30 January 2026Vitória SC 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 23 August 2025Moreirense 2–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 30 March 2025Moreirense 2–2 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 3 November 2024Vitória SC 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 30 March 2024Vitória SC 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
The result against the call
Vitória SC and Moreirense drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Vitória SC at 48% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Tiago Andrade 52' for Moreirense, Toni Borevković 90+6' for Vitória SC.
How the call on Vitória SC v Moreirense has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 48% / 29% / 23%: the biggest move is Vitória SC's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Vitória SC win48%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Moreirense win23%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.