Vitória SC
vs
Moreirense
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Vitória SC 1–0 Moreirense
The model makes it 51% Vitória SC, 27% draw, 22% Moreirense — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.90, Moreirense 0.86.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Vitória SC vs Moreirense
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Vitória SC wins, grey are draws, red are Moreirense wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vitória SC at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vitória SC vs Moreirense
Vitória SC
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu12 September 2026
- D0-0Casa Pia6 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga31 August 2026
- W1-0Nacional23 August 2026
- L2-3away to Sporting CP14 August 2026
Moreirense
- W3-1Maritimo14 September 2026
- L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Porto4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Casa Pia30 August 2026
- L0-4away to Arouca16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vitória SC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitória SC vs Moreirense
- 30 January 2026Vitória SC 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 23 August 2025Moreirense 2–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 30 March 2025Moreirense 2–2 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 3 November 2024Vitória SC 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 30 March 2024Vitória SC 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 5 November 2023Moreirense 1–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
The two sides
Vitória SC carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.63 for Moreirense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Vitória SC and 0.86 for Moreirense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vitória SC rate 0.98 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Moreirense rate 0.76 and 1.19.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Moreirense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vitória SC the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for Vitória SC against 0.86 for Moreirense. Vitória SC's attack/defence rating is 0.98/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.19 for Moreirense.