Águilas Doradas
vs
Jaguares
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Águilas Doradas 1–0 Jaguares
The model makes it 47% Águilas Doradas, 28% draw, 25% Jaguares — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Águilas Doradas 1.77, Jaguares 1.00.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Águilas Doradas vs Jaguares
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Águilas Doradas at 47% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Águilas Doradas vs Jaguares
Águilas Doradas
- L0-1away to America de Cali24 September 2026
- D2-2Deportivo Pereira18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Nacional13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Internacional de Bogota6 September 2026
- D2-2Chico30 August 2026
Jaguares
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza FC11 September 2026
- D3-3away to Junior6 September 2026
- D2-2America de Cali29 August 2026
- W1-0Chico21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Águilas Doradas vs Jaguares
- 10 May 2026Águilas Doradas 0–0 JaguaresCopa Colombia
- 23 March 2026Jaguares 1–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 14 August 2024Águilas Doradas 1–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 9 February 2024Jaguares 1–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 9 November 2023Jaguares 0–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 18 May 2023Águilas Doradas 3–0 JaguaresPrimera A
Leading scorers: Águilas Doradas and Jaguares
Águilas Doradas
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto11 goals
Jaguares
- A. Rentería9 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Águilas Doradas carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.31 for Jaguares. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Águilas Doradas and 1.00 for Jaguares. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Águilas Doradas rate 0.66 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jaguares rate 0.63 and 1.85.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Águilas Doradas the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Águilas Doradas against 1 for Jaguares. Águilas Doradas's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.85 for Jaguares.