North Macedonia
vs
Scotland
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: North Macedonia 0-2 Scotland.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% North Macedonia, 31% draw, 43% Scotland — fair odds of 3.85, 3.23 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: North Macedonia 0.82, Scotland 1.34.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: North Macedonia vs Scotland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Scotland at 43% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — North Macedonia vs Scotland
Line-ups
- 23S. DimitrievskiG
- 14M. MladenovskiD
- 6V. MusliuD
- 13Anes MeljichiD
- 2Bojan IlievskiM
- 16M. GashtarovM
- 8L. StankovskiM
- 3S. HerreraM
- 10E. BardhiM
- 7E. ElmasM
- 9B. MiovskiF
- 19L. DorievF
- 18T. KostadinovM
- 15A. EleziM
- 21J. AtanasovM
- 22H. MaleskiF
- 20D. MitrovskiM
- 17A. OmeragikjF
- 11E. RastoderF
- 12D. ShishkovskiG
- 1A. GunnG
- 5S. WelshD
- 16S. McKennaD
- 4L. BinksD
- 17B. DoakM
- 19L. FergusonM
- 8B. GilmourM
- 3A. RobertsonM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 9O. McBurnieM
- 20K. BowieF
- 18L. GrahamD
- 12L. KellyG
- 15J. McPakeF
- 14L. MillerM
- 23Kristi MontgomeryM
- 22N. PattersonD
- 10R. UreF
- 21S. BainG
- 13Colby DonovanD
Form going into North Macedonia vs Scotland
North Macedonia
- L0-2away to Slovenia29 September 2026
- L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026
Scotland
- L0-3Switzerland29 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovenia26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | North Macedonia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: North Macedonia vs Scotland
- 3 October 2026North Macedonia 0–2 ScotlandUEFA Nations League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.82 goals for North Macedonia and 1.34 for Scotland; the game produced 0 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Kieron Bowie 7' (Scotland), John McGinn 69' (Scotland).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,062 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Scotland the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for North Macedonia against 1.34 for Scotland. North Macedonia's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.05 for Scotland.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.