Emmen
vs
Helmond Sport
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Emmen 2–1 Helmond Sport
The model makes it 50% Emmen, 24% draw, 26% Helmond Sport — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Emmen 2.00, Helmond Sport 1.28.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Emmen's rating is built from 53 Eerste Divisie matches and Helmond Sport's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Emmen are 6th on 25 points from 15 games; Helmond Sport are 18th on 12 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Emmen are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to NAC Breda.
- Helmond Sport have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Almere City FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Emmen 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 December 2025, ended Emmen 4–1 Helmond Sport.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Emmen vs Helmond Sport
Has the model earned this number?
Emmen at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Emmen vs Helmond Sport
Emmen
Eerste Divisie
- L2-4away to NAC Breda14 November 2026
- L0-2MVV8 November 2026
- L0-5Den Bosch1 November 2026
- W2-0away to Vitesse23 October 2026
- W2-1Almere City FC17 October 2026
Helmond Sport
Eerste Divisie
- L1-6away to Almere City FC14 November 2026
- L2-3FC Volendam6 November 2026
- W3-2FC Eindhoven30 October 2026
- L4-5away to Jong AZ23 October 2026
- L0-2NAC Breda16 October 2026
What these results say
- Emmen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Emmen | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 25 |
| 18 | Helmond Sport | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Emmen
Chance to finish in the top eight · 38% today
Helmond Sport
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Emmen vs Helmond Sport
- 12 December 2025Emmen 4–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 22 August 2025Helmond Sport 2–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 24 February 2025Helmond Sport 1–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 23 August 2024Emmen 0–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 29 April 2024Emmen 3–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 24 November 2023Helmond Sport 1–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Emmen and Helmond Sport
Emmen
GoalsAssists
- J. Cooper113
- F. Quispel72
Helmond Sport
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Emmen v Helmond Sport has moved
First published on 14 Nov at 48% / 25% / 27% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 50% / 24% / 26%: the biggest move is Emmen's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Emmen win50%▲ +2
- Draw24%▼ −1
- Helmond Sport win26%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Emmen the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Emmen against 1.28 for Helmond Sport. Emmen's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.16 for Helmond Sport.
How the model reaches 50% for Emmen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Emmen to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Emmen's ratings add 2 points and Helmond Sport's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Emmen's ratings48%+2
- Helmond Sport's ratings50%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Emmen at home · Helmond Sport away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Emmen 15, Helmond Sport 15.
Emmen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Helmond Sport have let in 4 there.
Helmond Sport score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Emmen have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Emmen
- at Heracles4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 10%
- vs Jong PSV U2111 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- at FC Volendam18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- vs Waalwijk9 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
Helmond Sport
- vs Jong Utrecht4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- at Vitesse11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 20%
- vs Jong AZ18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- at FC Volendam8 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 18%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.