Eintracht Frankfurt
vs
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1 Hamburger SV
The model makes it 51% Eintracht Frankfurt, 23% draw, 26% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.12, Hamburger SV 1.38.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Eintracht Frankfurt: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Eintracht Frankfurt are 11th on 8 points from 6 games; Hamburger SV are 9th on 9 points from 6 games — Bundesliga.
- Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to 1. FC Köln.
- Hamburger SV are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to VfB Stuttgart.
- Last 6 meetings: Eintracht Frankfurt 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 Hamburger SV.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eintracht Frankfurt at 51% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
- W1-01. FC Köln16 October 2026
- L0-6away to RB Leipzig10 October 2026
- D2-2SC Freiburg19 September 2026
- W3-1away to FSV Mainz 0512 September 2026
- L1-4FC Augsburg6 September 2026
Hamburger SV
- W1-0VfB Stuttgart17 October 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim10 October 2026
- W2-11. FC Köln19 September 2026
- L0-5away to RB Leipzig13 September 2026
- L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
What these results say
- Eintracht Frankfurt scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eintracht Frankfurt conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Eintracht Frankfurt had three goals or more.
- Hamburger SV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hamburger SV had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
- 2 May 2026Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 20 December 2025Hamburger SV 1–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 5 May 2018Eintracht Frankfurt 3–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 12 December 2017Hamburger SV 1–2 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 18 March 2017Eintracht Frankfurt 0–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 21 October 2016Hamburger SV 0–3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
Leading scorers: Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
GoalsAssists
- Y. Ebnoutalib51
- J. Burkardt31
Hamburger SV
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Eintracht Frankfurt carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.68 for Hamburger SV. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.12 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.38 for Hamburger SV. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Eintracht Frankfurt rate 1.07 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hamburger SV rate 0.76 and 1.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hamburger SV, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eintracht Frankfurt the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.38 for Hamburger SV. Eintracht Frankfurt's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.08 for Hamburger SV.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Eintracht Frankfurt at home · Hamburger SV away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Eintracht FrankfurtHamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt are 8th after 6 Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 13th so far); Hamburger SV are 8th after 6 (between 8th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Eintracht Frankfurt 6, Hamburger SV 6.
Eintracht Frankfurt score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Hamburger SV have let in 1 there.
Hamburger SV score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Eintracht Frankfurt have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Eintracht Frankfurt
- at SC Paderborn 077 Nov · Bundesligawin 39%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim21 Nov · Bundesligawin 46%
- at VfB Stuttgart28 Nov · Bundesligawin 25%
- vs Werder Bremen5 Dec · Bundesligawin 46%
Hamburger SV
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach6 Nov · Bundesligawin 42%
- at Werder Bremen22 Nov · Bundesligawin 28%
- vs Bayern München28 Nov · Bundesligawin 11%
- at Union Berlin5 Dec · Bundesligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.