Borussia Mönchengladbach
vs
1899 Hoffenheim
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim
The model makes it 34% Borussia Mönchengladbach, 26% draw, 40% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.77, 1899 Hoffenheim 2.00.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom on 0 points from 4 games; 1899 Hoffenheim are 14th on 3 points from 4 games — Bundesliga.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have not won in their last 4, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to FSV Mainz 05.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to SC Paderborn 07.
- Last 6 meetings: 1899 Hoffenheim 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 40% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- L3-4FSV Mainz 0519 September 2026
- L0-5away to SC Freiburg12 September 2026
- L3-4SV Elversberg5 September 2026
- L0-3away to RB Leipzig29 August 2026
1899 Hoffenheim
- L1-3away to SC Paderborn 0720 September 2026
- W2-1VfB Stuttgart12 September 2026
- L2-3Borussia Dortmund5 September 2026
- L2-3away to 1. FC Köln29 August 2026
What these results say
- Borussia Mönchengladbach did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Borussia Mönchengladbach had three goals or more.
- 1899 Hoffenheim scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim
- 16 May 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 14 January 20261899 Hoffenheim 5–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 3 May 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–4 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 21 December 20241899 Hoffenheim 1–2 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 20 April 20241899 Hoffenheim 4–3 Borussia MonchengladbachBundesliga
- 2 December 2023Borussia Monchengladbach 2–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
Leading scorers: Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim
Borussia Mönchengladbach
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
1899 Hoffenheim
- A. Daghim2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.82 for 1899 Hoffenheim. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.00 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Borussia Mönchengladbach rate 0.85 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.06 and 1.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 2.00 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.14 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
Season stats
Borussia Mönchengladbach at home · 1899 Hoffenheim away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Borussia Mönchengladbach 4, 1899 Hoffenheim 4.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- at VfB Stuttgart23 Oct · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs SC Paderborn 0731 Oct · Bundesligawin 36%
- at Hamburger SV6 Nov · Bundesligawin 36%
- vs Borussia Dortmund21 Nov · Bundesligawin 18%
1899 Hoffenheim
- vs Lyon22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen25 Oct · Bundesligawin 28%
- at Werder Bremen31 Oct · Bundesligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.