Regular Season - 10 · 1 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave Primeira Liga prediction

Viseu

Our model says: Academico Viseu 2–0 Rio Ave

The model makes it 56% Academico Viseu, 24% draw, 20% Rio Ave — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Expected goals: Academico Viseu 2.02, Rio Ave 0.98.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: High.

Edge to Academico Viseu: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Key facts

  • Academico Viseu are 6th on 14 points from 8 games; Rio Ave are 14th on 7 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
  • Academico Viseu are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Estoril.
  • Rio Ave have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Nacional.
  • Last 4 meetings: Rio Ave 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 July 2023, ended Rio Ave 3–0 Academico Viseu.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave

55%
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Academico Viseu win Draw Rio Ave win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–010%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 3–07%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–05%

Scores read Academico Viseu first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 41%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Academico Viseu at 56% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave

Academico Viseu

  • W2-1Estoril10 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Estrela20 September 2026
  • W2-1Vitória SC12 September 2026
  • W1-0away to GIL Vicente6 September 2026
  • L0-3FC Porto29 August 2026

Rio Ave

  • W3-2Nacional11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Alverca19 September 2026
  • D3-3Estrela14 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Santa Clara6 September 2026
  • L0-4Sporting CP28 August 2026

What these results say

  • Academico Viseu won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Academico Viseu scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rio Ave conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rio Ave failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Rio Ave had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Academico Viseu84221110+114
14Rio Ave8215817-97

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave

  • 22 July 2023Rio Ave 3–0 Academico ViseuTaça da Liga
  • 30 July 2022Rio Ave 1–0 Academico ViseuFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 March 2022Academico Viseu 0–1 Rio AveSegunda Liga
  • 31 October 2021Rio Ave 1–2 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Academico Viseu and Rio Ave

Academico Viseu

GoalsAssists

  • André Clóvis40

Rio Ave

GoalsAssists

  • J. Blesa31

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Academico Viseu carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.55 for Rio Ave. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Academico Viseu and 0.98 for Rio Ave. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Academico Viseu rate 0.96 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rio Ave rate 0.76 and 1.39.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Academico Viseu the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Academico Viseu against 0.98 for Rio Ave. Academico Viseu's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.39 for Rio Ave.

Season stats

Academico ViseuRio Ave
8Matches8
4W 2D 2LRecord2W 1D 5L
11 1.4 per gameGoals scored8 1.0 per game
10 1.3 per gameGoals conceded17 2.1 per game
2 of 8Clean sheets1 of 8
2 of 8Failed to score5 of 8
–Penalties scored2 of 2
23 2.9 per gameYellow cards14 1.8 per game
0Red cards2
4-3-3 3×Usual shape4-2-3-1 7×

Academico Viseu at home · Rio Ave away

4Played4
2W 0D 2LRecord1W 0D 3L
4–6Goals for – against2–6
0 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primeira Liga matches this season: Academico Viseu 8, Rio Ave 8.

Academico Viseu scored 231212
Rio Ave conceded 432413

Academico Viseu score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Rio Ave have let in 3 there.

Rio Ave scored 102221
Academico Viseu conceded 311221

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Academico Viseu

  • at Nacional7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 44%
  • vs Alverca28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 44%
  • at Famalicao6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
  • vs Arouca13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 41%

Rio Ave

  • vs SC Braga8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 21%
  • at Arouca28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 20%
  • vs Casa Pia6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 46%
  • at Maritimo13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 27%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.