UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round · 6 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Debreceni VSC vs FC Copenhagen

Nagyerdei Stadion, Debrecen

The model makes it 38% Debreceni VSC, 24% draw, 38% FC Copenhagen — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Debreceni VSC 1.60, FC Copenhagen 1.61.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: Low.

Model insights

64%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%1-2 8%2-1 8%

Form going into this match

Debreceni VSC

  • L2-4away to Ujpest2 August 2026
  • L0-2Puskas Academy26 July 2026

FC Copenhagen

  • W3-1away to Silkeborg2 August 2026
  • W3-2Lyngby26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Domestic league positions

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
12Debreceni VSCNB I200226-40
1FC CopenhagenSuperliga220063+36

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables

Leading scorers

Debreceni VSC

No league goals recorded yet.

FC Copenhagen

  • M. Elyounoussi4 goals
  • B. Meling2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Debreceni VSC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.64 for FC Copenhagen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

Recent form (most recent last): Debreceni VSC L-L; FC Copenhagen W-W.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Debreceni VSC and 1.61 for FC Copenhagen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Debreceni VSC rate 0.73 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Copenhagen rate 0.76 and 1.16.

That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Debreceni VSC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for Debreceni VSC against 1.61 for FC Copenhagen. Debreceni VSC's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.16 for FC Copenhagen.