UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round · 6 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

CFR 1907 Cluj vs Tromso

Cluj-Napoca

The model makes it 49% CFR 1907 Cluj, 28% draw, 23% Tromso — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).

Expected goals: CFR 1907 Cluj 1.44, Tromso 0.89.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

46%
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 13%1-1 13%0-0 10%

Form going into this match

CFR 1907 Cluj

  • L1-3away to Rapid2 August 2026
  • W5-0FC Voluntari27 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Oțelul18 July 2026

Tromso

  • W6-2away to Aalesund2 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Ham-Kam18 July 2026
  • W4-0Valerenga11 July 2026
  • D0-0away to KFUM Oslo29 May 2026
  • D1-1Aalesund25 May 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Domestic league positions

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
12CFR 1907 ClujLiga I310275+23
3TromsoEliteserien1610423217+1534

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables

Leading scorers

CFR 1907 Cluj

  • S. Dražić3 goals1 assists
  • A. Cordea3 goals

Tromso

  • H. Larsen7 goals2 assists
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

CFR 1907 Cluj carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.52 for Tromso. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

Recent form (most recent last): CFR 1907 Cluj L-W-L; Tromso D-D-W-W-W.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for CFR 1907 Cluj and 0.89 for Tromso. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

CFR 1907 Cluj rate 0.57 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tromso rate 0.69 and 1.34.

That points to 41% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (10%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives CFR 1907 Cluj the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for CFR 1907 Cluj against 0.89 for Tromso. CFR 1907 Cluj's attack/defence rating is 0.57/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.34 for Tromso.