SC Braga
vs
Dinamo Minsk
The model makes it 77% SC Braga, 15% draw, 8% Dinamo Minsk — fair odds of 1.30, 6.67 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: SC Braga 2.58, Dinamo Minsk 0.73.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
SC Braga carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.25 for Dinamo Minsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): SC Braga W-W; Dinamo Minsk L-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.58 goals for SC Braga and 0.73 for Dinamo Minsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Braga rate 0.78 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Minsk rate 0.53 and 1.75.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for SC Braga against 0.73 for Dinamo Minsk. SC Braga's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.75 for Dinamo Minsk.