Inter Club d'Escaldes
vs
Flora Tallinn
The model makes it 42% Inter Club d'Escaldes, 21% draw, 37% Flora Tallinn — fair odds of 2.38, 4.76 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Inter Club d'Escaldes 2.11, Flora Tallinn 2.00.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Inter Club d'Escaldes carry a model rating of 5.99 against 6.12 for Flora Tallinn. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Inter Club d'Escaldes L-D; Flora Tallinn L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Inter Club d'Escaldes and 2.00 for Flora Tallinn. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Club d'Escaldes rate 0.48 in attack and 2.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Flora Tallinn rate 0.53 and 2.33.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Club d'Escaldes the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Inter Club d'Escaldes against 2 for Flora Tallinn. Inter Club d'Escaldes's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.33 for Flora Tallinn.