Regular Season - 11 · 27 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Durban City vs Polokwane City Premier Soccer League prediction

Chatsworth Stadium, Durban

Our model says: Durban City 1–0 Polokwane City

The model makes it 37% Durban City, 36% draw, 27% Polokwane City — fair odds of 2.70, 2.78 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Durban City 0.89, Polokwane City 0.70.

Both teams to score: 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 21%, under 2.5: 79%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Durban City's rating is built from 39 South African Premier Soccer League matches and Polokwane City's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 546 matches.

Key facts

  • Durban City are 13th on 7 points from 9 games; Polokwane City are 11th on 8 points from 9 games — Premier Soccer League.
  • Durban City have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Mamelodi Sundowns.
  • Polokwane City have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to TS Galaxy.
  • Last 3 meetings: Durban City 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Durban City 1–0 Polokwane City.

More South African Premier Soccer League predictions, then other matches

All South African Premier Soccer League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Durban City vs Polokwane City

30%
Both teams to score
21%
Over 2.5 goals
79%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Durban City win Draw Polokwane City win
  1. 0–021%
  2. 1–018%
  3. 0–114%
  4. 1–113%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 2–16%
  7. 0–25%

Scores read Durban City first; the other scorelines share the remaining 15%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Durban City at 37%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Durban City vs Polokwane City

Durban City

Premier Soccer League

  • L1-4away to Mamelodi Sundowns31 October 2026
  • L1-2Amazulu13 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Milford FC20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Orlando Pirates17 September 2026
  • D0-0Stellenbosch1 September 2026

Polokwane City

Premier Soccer League

  • D0-0TS Galaxy31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Siwelele18 October 2026
  • L0-1Amazulu19 September 2026
  • D1-1Kaizer Chiefs12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Marumo Gallants4 September 2026

What these results say

  • Durban City did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Durban City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Polokwane City did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Polokwane City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Polokwane City had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Soccer League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Durban City9144611-57
11Polokwane City9153811-38

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Durban City vs Polokwane City

  • 25 January 2026Durban City 1–0 Polokwane CityPremier Soccer League
  • 3 October 2025Durban City 4–1 Polokwane CityLeague Cup
  • 26 August 2025Polokwane City 0–0 Durban CityPremier Soccer League

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Polokwane City (11th, with Durban City 13th), while our numbers lean to Durban City. Durban City rate 0.48 in attack and 1.64 in defence, Polokwane City 0.45 and 1.53 (lower is better in defence), so Durban City have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Durban City Polokwane City
0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.45
1.64 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.53
0.89 Model expected goals (this match) 0.70

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Durban City the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Durban City against 0.70 for Polokwane City. Durban City's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.53 for Polokwane City.

Durban City carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.26 for Polokwane City. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for Durban City to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Durban City to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Durban City's ratings change nothing and Polokwane City's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground35%
  2. Home advantage40%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level37%−3
  4. Durban City's ratings37%±0
  5. Polokwane City's ratings37%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Durban CityPolokwane City
9Matches9
1W 4D 4LRecord1W 5D 3L
6 0.7 per gameGoals scored8 0.9 per game
11 1.2 per gameGoals conceded11 1.2 per game
3 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9
4 of 9Failed to score5 of 9
–Penalties scored–
10 1.1 per gameYellow cards15 1.7 per game
4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 4×

Durban City at home · Polokwane City away

4Played4
0W 3D 1LRecord1W 1D 2L
2–3Goals for – against4–6
2 of 4Clean sheets0 of 4

League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Durban City 9, Polokwane City 9.

Durban City scored 100211
Polokwane City conceded 240121

Durban City score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Polokwane City have let in 1 there.

Polokwane City scored 131121
Durban City conceded 213131

Polokwane City score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Durban City have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Durban City

  • at Siwelele6 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 29%
  • vs Marumo Gallants15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 44%
  • vs Chippa United20 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 38%
  • at Kaizer Chiefs10 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 19%

Polokwane City

  • at Mamelodi Sundowns5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 14%
  • vs Golden Arrows16 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 33%
  • at Orlando Pirates19 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 9%
  • vs Chippa United9 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 37%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.