Al-Ittihad
vs
NEOM
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Ittihad 1–0 NEOM
The model makes it 42% Al-Ittihad, 28% draw, 30% NEOM — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al-Ittihad 1.50, NEOM 1.19.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Al-Ittihad are 4th on 24 points from 11 games; NEOM are 5th on 22 points from 12 games — Pro League.
- Al-Ittihad are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Abha.
- NEOM have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Al Diriyah.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 April 2026, ended Al-Ittihad 3–4 NEOM.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Ittihad vs NEOM
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Ittihad at 42%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Ittihad vs NEOM
Al-Ittihad
Pro League
- D1-1away to Abha30 October 2026
- W2-0Al Diriyah23 October 2026
- W4-1away to Al-Ettifaq20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Hilal10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC11 September 2026
NEOM
Pro League
- W2-1away to Al Diriyah30 October 2026
- W2-0Abha24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Nassr20 October 2026
- L0-1Al-Ettifaq17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm10 October 2026
What these results say
- Al-Ittihad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Ittihad.
- NEOM conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NEOM had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al-Ittihad | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 | NEOM | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Ittihad vs NEOM
- 8 April 2026Al-Ittihad 3–4 NEOMPro League
- 31 December 2025NEOM 1–3 Al-IttihadPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Ittihad and NEOM
Al-Ittihad
GoalsAssists
- Y. En-Nesyri70
- G. Ilenikhena63
- S. Bergwijn51
NEOM
GoalsAssists
- A. Lacazette72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ittihad a 1.2% chance of the title and NEOM 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Al-Ittihad v NEOM has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Al-Ittihad's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Al-Ittihad win42%▼ −2
- Draw28%▲ +1
- NEOM win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ittihad the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Ittihad against 1.19 for NEOM. Al-Ittihad's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.03 for NEOM.
How the model reaches 42% for Al-Ittihad to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Ittihad to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al-Ittihad's ratings add 2 points and NEOM's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level39%−1
- Al-Ittihad's ratings41%+2
- NEOM's ratings42%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Ittihad at home · NEOM away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Ittihad 11, NEOM 12.
Al-Ittihad score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); NEOM have let in 2 there.
NEOM score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Al-Ittihad have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Ittihad
- at Al Khaleej Saihat4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 49%
- at Al-Wasl FC7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah11 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Al Riyadh17 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 57%
NEOM
- vs Al Kholood4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 55%
- vs Al Taawon12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 50%
- at Al Shabab16 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah1 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- at Al-Fayha7 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.