Richards Bay
vs
Stellenbosch
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Richards Bay 0–1 Stellenbosch
The model makes it 31% Richards Bay, 30% draw, 39% Stellenbosch — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Richards Bay 1.10, Stellenbosch 1.30.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 930 settled matches.
Edge to Stellenbosch: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Richards Bay's rating is built from 38 South African Premier Soccer League matches and Stellenbosch's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 538 matches.
Key facts
- Richards Bay are 15th on 3 points from 8 games; Stellenbosch are 7th on 10 points from 8 games — Premier Soccer League.
- Richards Bay have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Mamelodi Sundowns.
- Stellenbosch are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Kaizer Chiefs.
- Last 6 meetings: Richards Bay 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 April 2026, ended Richards Bay 2–1 Stellenbosch.
More South African Premier Soccer League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stellenbosch at 39% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 3,397 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch
Richards Bay
- L1-4Mamelodi Sundowns13 October 2026
- L2-3Sekhukhune United19 September 2026
- L1-5away to Milford FC13 September 2026
- L1-2Amazulu4 September 2026
- D2-2Kaizer Chiefs26 August 2026
Stellenbosch
- D1-1away to Kaizer Chiefs13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Kruger United19 September 2026
- D1-1Sekhukhune United11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Durban City1 September 2026
- L0-1away to Golden Arrows26 August 2026
What these results say
- Richards Bay did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Richards Bay scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Richards Bay conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Stellenbosch had two goals or fewer.
- Stellenbosch failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Richards Bay | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 3 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch
- 7 April 2026Richards Bay 2–1 StellenboschPremier Soccer League
- 20 September 2025Stellenbosch 0–1 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
- 21 February 2025Stellenbosch 1–1 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
- 26 October 2024Richards Bay 0–0 StellenboschPremier Soccer League
- 25 May 2024Richards Bay 2–1 StellenboschPremier Soccer League
- 2 December 2023Richards Bay 0–3 StellenboschLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Richards Bay and Stellenbosch
Richards Bay
GoalsAssists
- N. Xulu50
Stellenbosch
GoalsAssists
- Q. Plaatjies30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Richards Bay carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.36 for Stellenbosch. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Richards Bay and 1.30 for Stellenbosch. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Richards Bay rate 0.59 in attack and 2.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stellenbosch rate 0.58 and 1.55.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stellenbosch the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Richards Bay against 1.30 for Stellenbosch. Richards Bay's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.55 for Stellenbosch.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Richards Bay at home · Stellenbosch away
League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Richards Bay 8, Stellenbosch 8.
Richards Bay score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Stellenbosch have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Richards Bay
- at Marumo Gallants29 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 33%
- at TS Galaxy6 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 30%
- vs Orlando Pirates16 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 11%
- vs Siwelele20 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 37%
Stellenbosch
- vs TS Galaxy27 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 48%
- at Orlando Pirates5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 11%
- vs Milford FC15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 34%
- vs Mamelodi Sundowns18 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.