Siwelele
vs
Orlando Pirates
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Siwelele 0–1 Orlando Pirates
The model makes it 14% Siwelele, 25% draw, 61% Orlando Pirates — fair odds of 7.14, 4.00 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Siwelele 0.63, Orlando Pirates 1.83.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,420 settled matches.
One-sided: Orlando Pirates are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Siwelele's rating is built from 38 South African Premier Soccer League matches and Orlando Pirates's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 538 matches.
Key facts
- Siwelele are 14th on 6 points from 8 games; Orlando Pirates are 2nd on 22 points from 8 games — Premier Soccer League.
- Siwelele have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Polokwane City.
- Orlando Pirates are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to TS Galaxy.
- Last 3 meetings: Orlando Pirates 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Orlando Pirates 1–1 Siwelele.
More South African Premier Soccer League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Siwelele vs Orlando Pirates
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando Pirates at 61% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 1,073 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Siwelele vs Orlando Pirates
Siwelele
- W1-0Polokwane City18 October 2026
- D1-1Golden Arrows13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Mamelodi Sundowns9 September 2026
- L2-3away to Kaizer Chiefs6 September 2026
- D1-1Chippa United25 August 2026
Orlando Pirates
- W3-0TS Galaxy13 October 2026
- W2-0away to Marumo Gallants20 September 2026
- W2-0Durban City17 September 2026
- W4-0away to Kruger United1 September 2026
- W2-0Sekhukhune United25 August 2026
What these results say
- Siwelele failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Siwelele scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Siwelele conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orlando Pirates won every one of these 5 matches.
- Orlando Pirates scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orlando Pirates kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Siwelele | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 1 | +18 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Siwelele vs Orlando Pirates
- 14 March 2026Orlando Pirates 1–1 SiwelelePremier Soccer League
- 4 October 2025Orlando Pirates 1–0 SiweleleLeague Cup
- 23 September 2025Siwelele 0–1 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Siwelele and Orlando Pirates
Siwelele
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Orlando Pirates
GoalsAssists
- T. Moremi40
- B. Radiopane31
- O. Appollis23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Siwelele carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.91 for Orlando Pirates. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.63 goals for Siwelele and 1.83 for Orlando Pirates. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Siwelele rate 0.57 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orlando Pirates rate 1.03 and 0.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Siwelele a 0% chance of the title and Orlando Pirates 76%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando Pirates the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.63 expected goals for Siwelele against 1.83 for Orlando Pirates. Siwelele's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/0.92 for Orlando Pirates.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Siwelele at home · Orlando Pirates away
League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Siwelele 8, Orlando Pirates 8.
Orlando Pirates score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Siwelele have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Siwelele
- at Sekhukhune United29 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 25%
- vs Durban City6 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 37%
- at Kruger United15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 35%
- at Richards Bay20 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 35%
Orlando Pirates
- vs Golden Arrows28 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 63%
- vs Stellenbosch5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 65%
- at Richards Bay16 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 69%
- vs Polokwane City19 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 69%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.