Dundee
vs
Aberdeen
The model makes it 41% Dundee, 23% draw, 36% Aberdeen — fair odds of 2.44, 4.35 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dundee 1.78, Aberdeen 1.65.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dundee
- L0-1away to Celtic3 August 2026
Aberdeen
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Dundee | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Aberdeen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Dundee vs Aberdeen
- 17 May 2026Dundee 3–2 AberdeenPremiership
- 21 February 2026Aberdeen 2–3 DundeePremiership
- 6 December 2025Dundee 1–3 AberdeenPremiership
- 5 October 2025Aberdeen 4–0 DundeePremiership
- 15 February 2025Dundee 1–2 AberdeenPremiership
- 9 November 2024Aberdeen 4–1 DundeePremiership
Leading scorers
Dundee
No league goals recorded yet.
Aberdeen
- L. Mayo1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dundee carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.3 for Aberdeen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Dundee L; Aberdeen W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Dundee and 1.65 for Aberdeen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dundee rate 0.54 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aberdeen rate 0.58 and 1.74.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aberdeen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dundee the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Dundee against 1.65 for Aberdeen. Dundee's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.74 for Aberdeen.