Dundee vs Aberdeen Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Dundee 2-0 Aberdeen.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Dundee, 23% draw, 36% Aberdeen — fair odds of 2.44, 4.35 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Dundee at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dundee vs Aberdeen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Owen GoodmanG
- 7Drey WrightD
- 4Ryan AstleyD
- 5Owen BevanD
- 3Idris OdutayoD
- 8Ryan FinniganM
- 48Ethan HamiltonM
- 27Joe BevanM
- 19Joe WestleyM
- 18Charlie ReillyM
- 15Simon MurrayF
- 10Finlay RobertsonM
- 11Ashley HayF
- 14Alan ForrestF
- 17Žan BeširM
- 2Brad HallidayD
- 13Kieran O'HaraG
- 52Charley OosenbrughD
- 58Ethan CrombieM
- 60Ryan BlandF
- 27Marius MüllerG
- 28Chris CaddenD
- 23Lewis MayoD
- 26Daniel HappeD
- 24Nesta Guinness-WalkerD
- 17Stuart ArmstrongM
- 32Aremu AfeezM
- 20Toyosi OlusanyaM
- 10Alexander BriedlM
- 7Tony YoganeM
- 15Kevin NisbetF
- 11Lewis SmithF
- 9Ayoub MoulouaF
- 22Jack MilneD
- 40Findlay MarshallM
- 53Andrew FasanyaF
- 1Dimitar MitovG
- 2Nicky DevlinD
- 21Gavin MolloyD
- 48Cooper MassonM
Form going into Dundee vs Aberdeen
Dundee
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Celtic3 August 2026
Aberdeen
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dundee | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 17 |
| 11 | Aberdeen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundee vs Aberdeen
- 17 May 2026Dundee 3–2 AberdeenPremiership
- 21 February 2026Aberdeen 2–3 DundeePremiership
- 6 December 2025Dundee 1–3 AberdeenPremiership
- 5 October 2025Aberdeen 4–0 DundeePremiership
- 15 February 2025Dundee 1–2 AberdeenPremiership
Leading scorers: Dundee and Aberdeen
Dundee
GoalsAssists
- B. Fink40
- J. Westley40
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dundee beat Aberdeen 2–0. The model had made a win for Dundee its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Westley 9' for Dundee, J. Bevan 56' for Dundee. On expected goals it finished 2.22–0.66.